NOAA ENSO Update October 2023: El Niño is Certain, But How Strong Will it Get? El Niño is currently purring along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niño—definition to follow shortly—means it is more likely that we will see El Niño’s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world. Related: 2023-24 El […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 12, 2023 0 Comments
AccuWeather Releases 23/24 Winter Forecast: El Niño Could Bring a Repeat of Last Winter to the West This forecast first appeared on AccuWeather A strengthening El Niño will make this winter different than last year in part of the United States. It will be colder with plenty more snow for millions of people who live in major cities, but that won’t be the case everywhere. The cold season is upon us, and AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters say El […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 4, 2023 0 Comments
[UPDATED] NOAA Winter 23/24 Outlook: This is How El Niño Will Impact Temperature and Snowfall This Winter… As we’re well into fall now, the NOAA is starting to nail down its forecast for the upcoming winter. These outlooks have been consistently updated every month since last year, but with winter fast approaching, forecasters can start being more specific and accurate. They were updated last week on September 21st, 2023. Related: Farmers’ Almanac 2023/24 Winter Forecast: A Return […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 24, 2023 10 Comments
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Finally Declares El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (‘BOM’) has officially declared an El Niño, after Oceanic indicators continuously exhibited an El Niño state. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures continue to exceed El Niño thresholds. The call had been anticipated for months after the country experienced the second hottest August on record. This is the first El Niño pattern across Australia […] Weather Julia Schneemann | September 19, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA September ENSO Update: Greater Than 95% Chance El Niño Sticks Around Through March Let’s cut right to the chase. According to the September El Niño-Southern Oscillation (aka ”ENSO”) Outlook, El Niño is expected to stick around (with greater than a 95% chance) at least through January-March 2024. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter (Oceanic Niño Index ≥ 1.5 ˚Celsius). Remember, though, […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 14, 2023 0 Comments
2023-24 El Niño Outlook: What Are the Implications for North American Ski Season? After three years of moderate La Niña winters, El Niño is poised to return in full force, having major implications for the North American ski season. Let’s look at what El Niño is, how it works, and the impact it will have on snowfall this season. Related: Farmers’ Almanac 2023/24 Winter Forecast: A Return Of Traditional Winter Weather: The Brrr […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 4, 2023 0 Comments
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NOAA ENSO August 2023 Update: Greater Than 95% Chance of El Niño This Winter – But What Does That Mean? It’s that time again! And by “that time,” I mean the El Niño forecast update, of course. The chance that El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (aka “ENSO”) climate pattern—will continue through the winter is greater than 95%, so let’s sharpen our pencils and get into the details of what that means for upcoming seasons. Related: […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 10, 2023 0 Comments