Is El Niño The Reason for Zero Atlantic Hurricanes So Far this Season?

The Atlantic Ocean has yet to produce a single hurricane in 2026. That is remarkable, especially considering we are now approaching the end of September, normally one of the busiest stretches of the Atlantic hurricane season. The official hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with activity typically peaking around early to mid-September. The last time the Atlantic did not prouce a hurricane by this time was 1966.

While it is unlikely, if November ends without a hurricane, CBS reports it would be the first time since 1914. If September ends without a hurricane, it would be just the eighth time on record since the 1850s that it has happened. The years 1895, 1905, 1907, 1914, 1925, 1939, and 1994 were the only other years in September without a hurricane forming on the East Coast. The official NOAA Hurricane Outlook calls for a 75% chance of a below-normal season, featuring seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes, and zero to two major hurricanes.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the Atlantic has produced five named storms so far this season. Tropical Depression Six became Tropical Storm Fay on September 20, but it has also remained below hurricane strength. Tropical storms get an official name when winds reach 39 miles per hour, and become a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph. So far this season, the Atlantic has not seen a single storm cross that threshold.

Climate change may also be playing a role in the unusual Atlantic hurricane season, although it can be difficult to attribute a single season to climate change. A warmer climate generally means warmer ocean temperatures, which can provide more energy for tropical storms, but climate change can also alter atmospheric circulation, wind patterns, and other conditions that influence hurricane formation. In 2026, however, the unusually strong El Niño and other atmospheric factors appear to be major contributors to the lack of Atlantic hurricanes. The combination is a reminder that hurricane activity is influenced by several competing factors, making any single season difficult to explain or predict.

El Niño causes the waters in the Pacific to become warmer and strengthens the upper-level winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. These wind shears create conditions that can tilt, weaken, or disrupt developing tropical systems before they organize into hurricanes. The Atlantic’s peak hurricane season is September 10; however, there is still a chance that these conditions can change before the hurricane season ends on November 30.

However, El Niño is not the only factor involved in the lack of hurricanes forming so far this season in the Atlantic. Sea-surface temperatures, moisture, atmospheric stability, and regional wind patterns in the Atlantic Basin also affect tropical storm and hurricane formation. While El Niño may suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic, the enormous warming of the equatorial Pacific could have a much bigger impact on skiers and snowboarders once winter arrives.

• Related: NOAA: What Does El Niño Mean for Hurricane Season in the USA?

El Niño Is Supercharged

The 2026 El Niño event is shaping up to be an exceptional one.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in September that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. NOAA also gives a 75% chance that the October through December period will produce an event stronger than previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.

Sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific are already more than 3°C above average. The Niño 3.4 region was at +1.8°C in August, while the Niño 1+2 region reached +3.4°C. Those are significant temperature anomalies across a huge area of the Pacific Ocean, and they can have effects far beyond the tropics.

OpenSnow has gone a step further, describing the potential event as a “Super El Niño.” Its August outlook used several strong historical El Niño seasons as analogs, including 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24.

• Related: OpenSnow Predicts Record “Super El Niño” Winter with Massive Southwest Powder Potential and High Temperature Risk

For skiers and snowboarders, that Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly could be much more interesting than anything happening in the Atlantic. A strong El Niño can alter large-scale atmospheric patterns, meaning the effects of the unusually warm Pacific Ocean can eventually reach North America. The conditions on the West Coast and in the Pacific are completely different from those in the Atlantic. While the East Coast has been historically quiet, the Pacific has produced 18 named storms so far, including six hurricanes, four of which have reached major hurricane status. Meanwhile, the Atlantic has produced just five named storms and no hurricanes.

A strong El Niño could also lead to above-average snowfall across much of central and southern Utah. However, northern Utah has historically seen near-normal or even slightly below-normal snowfall during some El Niño winters.

Overall, NOAA forecasts increased chances of above-normal temperatures through April over northern and central portions of the United States east of the Rockies.

That is why the current hurricane season is worth watching from a ski perspective. The same El Niño that is helping keep Atlantic hurricanes in check could also play a role in shaping the weather pattern across North America this winter.

For now, the Atlantic remains remarkably quiet while the Pacific continues to warm. And for anyone counting down the days until ski season, what happens in the Pacific Ocean could matter more than what happens in the Atlantic.

Gregg Frantz contributed to this article.