How Long Will Tahoe’s Dry Spell Last?

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Model showing precipitation forecast for December 9th until December 31st, 2013.

It’s rare to see a mid-month chart for December look this dry.  It’s hard to believe. We’re off to a pretty slow start this season and things don’t look very promising for the remainder of the month. After a cool down on Friday, we begin warming up during the day into the fifties by Sunday…

December 19th Storm?

The next chance for any snow would be an inside slider type storm around December 19th. The Euro model shows a positively tilted trough with some over water trajectory for a moderate storm.  Some of the GFS ensembles are catching on to this idea. The Canadian keeps the ridge on top of us and thus no storm. Typically, the Euro out performs the Canadian, but the models have been extremely chaotic this year and the Canadian seems to be performing the best thus far.  We’ll have to wait and see if the ridge retrogrades far enough west to stop the trough from sliding to our east. On a brighter note, the jet stream for the first half of January according to the chart slides to the south and into our region.

January looking better
January looks better.  Model showing precipitation forecast for January 1st until January 23rd, 2014.

January is looking better. Three to four inches of liquid for the first half of January is a far cry from the three tenths of an inch for the remainder of this month.  Lets hope it’s true…

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5 thoughts on “How Long Will Tahoe’s Dry Spell Last?

  1. best case just outside 10 day window
    worst case, according to the recent Princeton paper, is a long long time. It suggested that as the amazon has been cut and burnt the airmass is no longer wet and this effects california by shifting storms. I remember kings beach in the 90s with the 6 foot berms down the middle of the street, might have been a dream though

    1. It happened, I remember one xmas eve in 96 or 97 with what seemed like 10′ walls in the middle of the road in KB…

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