Weather
A cool, unsettled system brings scattered thunderstorms and a light Sierra snow event from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Most accumulation favors the higher terrain, with generally 2-4 inches for better-placed mountains and up to 5-7 inches near Mt. Rose. Snow starts wet and dense where it falls, improves briefly Monday night, then a warmer and mostly dry pattern takes over late week.
Saturday stays mild with southwest breezes and only spotty shower or thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain. The individual models converge on a more active shower pattern Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, but they still diverge on how quickly accumulating snow develops and which crest zones benefit first. Snow levels are high early, mostly near or above 8,500 feet, so early snow quality looks very wet with SLRs around 3-7. Lightning, small hail, and brief gusty outflow winds are the bigger ski-weather concerns before the colder air settles in.
Monday into Tuesday is the best-defined snow period, with confidence strongest from Sunday afternoon, May 3 through Tuesday evening, May 5. The individual models are better aligned on cooler air and continued showers, though they still differ on local intensity from Tahoe south toward Mammoth. Snow levels lower toward roughly 7,000-8,000 feet during the better overnight windows, and SLRs mostly run 7-11, meaning dense to fair snow rather than fluffy late-season powder. Mammoth has the better open-area snow signal with 3-4 inches, while Palisades Tahoe is more likely to see a shorter, wetter 2-3 inches event.
Wednesday through next weekend trends warmer and mostly dry as the storm pulls away and high pressure builds over the West. The individual models converge on little to no additional snowfall after Tuesday, rising snow levels, lighter winds for the weekend, and mountain temperatures rebounding into a springlike pattern. The longer-range signal still favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for northern California, with only weak and divergent hints of trace snow near the far end of the period, so that late signal is not a meaningful powder setup at this point.
Resort Forecast Totals (Sun May 03 – Tue May 05)
- Mt. Rose – 5-7 in
- Kirkwood – 3-4 in
- Mammoth – 3-4 in
- Bear Valley – 2-4 in
- Heavenly – 2-3 in
- Palisades Tahoe – 2-3 in
- Sugar Bowl – 2-3 in
- Dodge Ridge – 2-3 in
- Northstar – 0 in
- Diamond Peak – 0 in
