Slippery Slopes: Climate Change Threatens the Future of Skiing in North America

At the base of a Massachusetts ski hill one recent November, sunlight glared off a patch of sloppy snow “pooling like dirty mashed potatoes” as the thermometer hit 59°F.¹ Scenes like this–unseasonable warmth turning early-season snow to slush–are becoming familiar across the United States and Canada. Ski resort operators and skiers are sounding the alarm that winters are warming, snowpacks are shrinking, and the ski season is getting shorter. Scientific data backs up these observations, pointing to a future where North America’s iconic ski slopes face an uphill battle against climate change.

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Warming Winters and Vanishing Snowpack

Climate change is heating winter faster than any other season in much of North America.² As temperatures rise, the conditions needed for snowfall–cold air and moisture–are becoming less reliable. Long-term records show that fewer winter storms are bringing snow, and more are bringing rain. In fact, nearly 80% of U.S. weather stations have seen a decrease in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow over recent decades.³ Warmer air holds more moisture, which can fuel heavy snow under the right conditions, but overall, the trend is toward less snowfall in most places. Climate Central found that almost two-thirds (64%) of observing locations in the U.S. now get less snow than they did in the early 1970s.² The warming atmosphere is tipping the balance from snow to rain.

One clear sign of change is in the mountain snowpack–the natural accumulation of snow that builds up each winter. In the western United States, April snowpack levels have declined at 81% of monitored sites since the mid-20th century, with an average drop of about 18%.³ These losses are especially pronounced in regions like the Cascades of Washington and Oregon, California’s Sierra Nevada, and the northern Rocky Mountains.³ There is less snow overall, and it is peaking earlier in the season. Researchers report that at roughly 80% of western U.S. sites, the maximum snowpack now arrives days or weeks earlier than it used to.³ On average, the peak snowpack date has shifted almost seven days earlier since the 1980s,³ a sure indicator that spring is coming sooner to the mountains. Consequently, the period during which snow stays on the ground–critical for skiing–is also contracting. From 1982 to 2023, the length of the snowpack season shortened by about 15 days on average across the western U.S. ³

Canada’s mountains are experiencing similar shifts. National analyses show significant spring snowpack declines in many areas. While snow cover extent in April hasn’t shown a significant trend Canada-wide since the 1970s, there have been steep declines of about 1.9% and 6.7% per decade by May and June, respectively.⁴ In other words, late-spring snow rapidly disappears as the climate warms. The earlier melt-off is linked to rising temperatures, including pronounced warming in northern Canada that accelerates spring thaw.⁴ Scientists have observed substantial warming and snowpack retreat even in high-altitude or traditionally snowy regions. Studies in the Canadian Rockies note that a warmer climate means more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, especially at lower elevations.⁵ For example, climate models project that winter precipitation in Canada could increase by ~24% over the 21st century, but much of that extra moisture will come down as rain due to higher temperatures.⁵ The net result? Less snow is stored in the mountains despite potentially wetter winters.

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Shorter Ski Seasons – Now and in the Future

For skiers and snowboarders, these climate trends manifest in one painfully tangible way: shorter seasons on the slopes. In the United States, the ski season is already contracting. Between 2000 and 2019, the average U.S. ski season shrank by about 5.5 to 7 days compared to the 1960s and ’70s.⁶ In other words, what used to be a Thanksgiving-to-April season in some regions might now reliably start later or end earlier by a week. This lost week of skiing is not just anecdotal–it’s been measured across more than 200 ski areas in a recent nationwide assessment.⁶

Unless global greenhouse gas emissions are curbed, the season shrinkage is expected to accelerate. By the 2050s, under optimistic climate scenarios, U.S. ski seasons could be 14 to 33 days shorter on average; under higher-emission scenarios, they could be 27 to 62 days shorter.⁶ Losing one to two months of winter would devastate many ski areas. A team of scientists funded by the EPA warned that “virtually all [U.S.] locations are projected to see reductions in winter recreation season lengths, exceeding 50% by 2050” for some ski resorts.⁷ By 2090, under the worst-case warming, some ski areas might see their seasons cut by over 80%–effectively an end to skiing as we know it at lower elevations.⁷

These projections are not distant, abstract scenarios–they are within the lifetime of today’s children and grandchildren. “By 2085, if we continue with climate change, you won’t be able to ski on a reliable basis at Whistler,” warns Michael Pidwirny, a climate scientist at the University of British Columbia, referring to the famous Canadian resort.⁸ Whistler Blackcomb, which today boasts one of the longest ski seasons in North America, may struggle to have any dependable snow at its base area by the late century. Closer in time, Pidwirny projects that coastal ski hills near Vancouver–Cypress, Grouse, and Seymour–will be finished by 2050 if warming continues unabated.⁸ Such dire outlooks underscore that the timeline for action is now; the changes are forecast within the planning horizon of many ski area investors and community leaders.

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Not every winter will be progressively worse than the last–natural climate variability ensures some good snowfall years will still occur. However, the overall trend is toward unpredictability and decline. As one industry saying goes, “winter is shrinking at both ends.” The season starts later and ends earlier on average, and mid-winter thaws are more frequent, slicing up the once reliably cold months. Longtime skiers often reminisce about the “real winters” of decades past; now, rain-outs, thin snowpack, and erratic weather are common complaints. Holiday periods that used to guarantee snow are no longer a sure bet. For instance, the usually snowy New England mountains were mostly brown during Christmas week of 2015, with temperatures hitting 60°F in Vermont and only a handful of trails open at major resorts.⁹ Those kinds of disappointing winters, once rare, are happening more often as the climate warms.

Regional Impacts and Case Studies

The vulnerability to climate change varies by region across North America. Generally, lower-elevation and more southerly ski areas face the most significant risks, while those in colder, higher locales have a bit more cushion–but no one is immune. Here’s a look at how different mountain regions are experiencing the changes:

The U.S. Northeast: An Uphill Battle for Small Hills

Nowhere is the squeeze on winter more visible than in the Northeastern United States, a region with many small ski hills at modest elevations. These local ski areas are beloved community hubs but rely heavily on cold snaps for snowmaking. Scientists have identified the Northeast as a climate change hot spot for winter tourism. By 2039, only about half of the ski areas in the Northeast are expected to be still able to sustain a 100-day ski season–a benchmark for economic viability in the ski industry.¹ The rest may fall below that threshold, meaning they won’t stay open long enough each winter to turn a profit. The outlook is incredibly bleak for the southern part of the Northeast (southern New England). Within the next 20–30 years, no ski areas in Massachusetts or Connecticut are projected to hit 100 days of operation per winter reliably, and only one-third of New York’s resorts would still be likely to open for the lucrative Christmas holidays.¹ Even the most advanced snowmaking might not save many of these lower-altitude hills, as ever-warmer nights shrink the windows suitable for machine-made snow.¹

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Larger mountains farther north–in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine–are expected to fare better through mid-century.¹ Their higher elevations and colder climates should allow them to keep a more consistent snow cover, and ironically, they may even benefit as skiers flock north to the remaining reliable snow. But this consolidation comes at a cost: the region could see a “prolonged contraction” from a diffuse collection of local ski hills to a few big corporate-owned resorts dominating the market.¹ New England has already lost hundreds of ski areas over the past few decades–an estimated 600 small ski hills closed in the Northeast in the 1980s and ’90s, partly due to a string of warm winters they couldn’t survive.¹ That trend may accelerate. Ski industry veterans note that the smaller, mom-and-pop ski areas often struggle most with warmer winters, either unable to adapt or afford the costly adaptations needed.¹ One resort owner said, “Short of putting a dome over the mountain, I don’t know what else we can do” to guarantee snow.¹

The Mountain West: Higher Elevations, New Challenges

The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada peaks have long provided North America’s most snow-sure ski destinations. However, even these regions are feeling the effects of climate change. Western ski resorts enjoyed epic snowfall in some recent winters, yet they have also endured extreme droughts and unprecedented warm spells. California offers a stark example of these swings between feast and famine. In the Sierra Nevada, the winter of 2014–2015 brought so little snow that some Tahoe-area ski resorts were forced to shut down runs early. In March 2015, skiers at one resort rode the chairlift over dry, brown ground where there should have been deep snowpack.⁹ That drought shattered records for low precipitation and high temperatures, showing how a warming climate can translate into an absent ski season. (By contrast, just a few years later, the Sierra saw one of its snowiest winters on record–highlighting the increased volatility that climate change may bring.²)

In the U.S. Mountain West (Colorado, Utah, Idaho, etc.), high elevation is a saving grace–colder summit temperatures mean these resorts retain more snow in marginal winters. Many ski areas above ~7,000 feet have still been able to count on decent snowfall most years. Colorado’s ski resorts, for instance, benefit from their lofty peaks and generally continue to have reliable winter conditions, especially compared to low-elevation hills. However, even the Rockies are not exempt from the trends. Studies show that the average ski season in the Rocky Mountains is shortening, and spring melts occur earlier, just like in other regions.³ One analysis found that across the U.S. West, including the Rockies, ski seasons from 2000–2019 were about five to seven days shorter than in the late 20th century.⁶ By mid-century, season lengths are projected to decline significantly at all but the highest peaks, cutting two to four weeks off western ski seasons under mid-range warming scenarios.⁶ Resorts at the highest elevations of the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada will be the last to lose their snow–they are “far more resilient to temperature changes” according to the EPA-funded study⁷–but “everyone will take a hit” eventually.⁷ In many western states, water scarcity is a critical concern: as natural snowpack declines, ski areas depend on artificial snow, which depends on ample water supply. Ongoing drought conditions and competition for water resources could limit snowmaking in the West^1, compounding the climate threat.

Canada’s Slopes: From Coastal Mountains to the Rockies

Canadian ski regions mirror many U.S. trends with a mix of vulnerabilities. The coastal and low-elevation ski areas are at the highest risk. In British Columbia, climate scientists warn that skiing on the North Shore mountains near Vancouver could disappear by mid-century under current warming trajectories.⁸ These ski hills (Cypress Mountain, Grouse Mountain, and Seymour) sit at relatively low elevations and struggle in warm winters. Pidwirny’s analysis bluntly concludes, “Cypress, Grouse, Seymour? They’re finished by 2050” if global emissions don’t drastically decline.⁸ Farther inland, B.C.’s famous resorts like Whistler Blackcomb enjoy higher elevations (with peaks above 7,000 feet) and a colder interior climate. Still, Whistler’s base area is low and near the Pacific coast, making it susceptible to warming. By the 2080s, even Whistler may not have reliable annual snow without artificial help.⁸ Many locals recall the winters of 2014 and 2015, when a warm Pacific weather pattern left B.C. ski slopes starved for snow–a preview of what more frequent warm winters could look like.⁸

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In the Canadian Rockies and Interior ranges (Alberta, interior B.C.), higher elevations provide more of a buffer. Resorts in Banff or interior B.C. (like Big White or Revelstoke) still typically have long, snowy winters. However, the baseline climate is shifting here as well. Western Canada has seen an increase in average winter temperatures and declining snow accumulation at lower elevations.¹⁰ Snowpack monitoring indicates that low-lying areas are losing snowpack even if the high alpine zones remain comparatively stable.¹⁰ As with the U.S. Rockies, these Canadian resorts may maintain decent conditions in the future, but shorter seasons and earlier thaws are expected to become the norm. Eastern Canada, too, faces challenges: ski areas in Ontario and Quebec are generally at low elevations similar to New England’s. They depend heavily on snowmaking to get through warm spells, and climate models suggest significant increases in snowmaking needs in the coming decades (with 30–50% shorter seasons by the 2080s without adaptation in some areas).¹¹ A case study in southern Ontario projected that even with current snowmaking technology, a ski hill could see its season cut by up to 32% by the 2050s and up to 50% by the 2080s, alongside doubling snowmaking requirements under high-emission scenarios.¹¹ The ability to invest in ever more powerful snowmaking will likely determine which Eastern Canadian ski resorts can remain viable as the climate warms.

Economic Strains on a Snow-Dependent Industry

The consequences of these climate shifts are not just physical but also economic. Winter tourism is big business–the U.S. ski industry is a roughly $12 billion sector supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs, and Canada’s ski areas draw millions of visitors annually. When winters are lean, the ripple effects are felt in mountain towns and resort economies. A study by the Natural Resources Defense Council found that low-snow winters in the past have cost the U.S. winter sports industry over $1 billion in lost revenue and 27,000 fewer jobs over a decade.¹ More recent research paints an even more stark financial picture. Between 2001 and 2020, shortened seasons and unreliable snow are estimated to have cost the U.S. ski industry $5 billion in lost revenue–about $250 million annually on average.⁶ This comes from fewer lift ticket sales, less spending on lodging and dining, and higher operating costs (like snowmaking and marketing to convince skiers to come despite poor conditions). If climate trends continue, those losses are expected to mount. By 2050, under high-emissions scenarios, the winter sports industry could lose hundreds of millions of dollars each year due to curtailed seasons.⁷ In a worst-case scenario by the late century, one analysis projected annual losses up to $2 billion for the U.S. winter recreation sector.⁷

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Ski towns are already grappling with these new economic realities. Business owners in places like Colorado and Quebec have noticed shifts in travel patterns. In lousy snow years, tourist visits drop, and local businesses from hotels to ski instructors see income dry up. Competitions and events get canceled for lack of snow, further hitting revenues. In the longer term, property values and tax bases in ski-dependent communities could suffer if winters dwindle. The flip side is that some higher-altitude resorts might see a boost in business as lower-lying competitors shut down, essentially concentrating the market. But even the “winners” in this scenario must invest heavily to keep the snow coming.

Adapting to a Warmer Future: Innovations and Strategies

Facing these challenges, the ski industry is not sitting idle. Ski resorts across North America are pursuing various adaptation strategies to cushion the blow of climate change. While no solution is perfect, these efforts aim to buy time and keep the lifts running as long as possible. Key adaptation measures include:

• Snowmaking Arms Race: Virtually every major ski resort now relies on artificial snowmaking to supplement nature. In the U.S., 89% of ski areas had snowmaking capabilities as of 2022⁶ and the percentage is similar in Canada. Resorts invest in high-efficiency snow guns and large water reservoirs to cover trails when Mother Nature doesn’t cooperate. This has helped offset moderate snowfall declines; for example, by upgrading equipment, one resort cut its snowmaking hours from 1,000 per year to 600 to cover the same terrain.¹ However, snowmaking is energy- and water-intensive. Canadian ski areas collectively use an estimated 478,000 MWh of electricity and 43 million cubic meters of water each winter for snowmaking, resulting in over 130,000 tons of CO₂ emissions.¹² As winters warm, the windows for efficient snowmaking (temperatures below freezing) also shrink. Some resorts are experimenting with new techniques – such as adding special nucleating agents to water – to improve artificial snow yield (up to 90% water-to-snow conversion) and reduce energy use.¹² Despite the costs, snowmaking remains the linchpin adaptation for keeping trails open during mild winters.
• Reengineering Slopes and Infrastructure: To better hold snow, many ski areas are redesigning their terrain. Slope development projects include regrading runs to avoid flat, sun-exposed spots where snow melts, adding snow fences or more trees as windbreaks and shade, and even developing new higher-elevation trails where colder temperatures persist.¹² Several Colorado resorts (Aspen Mountain, Keystone, Steamboat) have pursued expansions to higher altitude terrain in recent years.¹² These moves help ensure a more solid snow base and extend the season at the top of the mountain. Some operators are also “snow farming”, i.e. stockpiling snow during good times–pushing snow into huge piles or storing it under insulating covers to preserve it for lean periods.¹² In a few cases, resorts have even carried over snow from one season to the next to guarantee an early start in fall. While these methods can be costly and labor-intensive, they are becoming more common in climate resilience plans.
• Diversifying Activities and Revenue: Ski resorts are transforming into multi-season adventure parks to reduce reliance on winter alone. Many now offer extensive summer operations–mountain biking, alpine slides, zip-lines, hiking tours, golf, and festivals–to keep business steady if winter falters.¹ Resorts also host weddings, conferences, and events year-round. This diversification is both an economic hedge and a way to maintain local employment beyond the ski season. At the same time, some ski areas are shortening their winter operating calendar to cut costs during marginal periods – for instance, opening a bit later in fall or closing earlier in spring if conditions aren’t favorable. While nobody in the industry wants to give up on skiing, broadening the business model is a practical necessity in uncertain winters.
• Climate Advocacy and Sustainability: Recognizing that long-term survival depends on global action, the ski industry has increasingly raised its voice on climate change. More than 190 ski resorts have signed onto the “Sustainable Slopes” environmental charter to address climate risks and reduce their carbon footprint collectively.¹ Industry groups and high-profile resorts lobby for clean energy policies, emissions reductions, and climate legislation.¹ Resorts themselves are investing in renewable energy (like the wind turbine that Jiminy Peak in Massachusetts installed, which now supplies a quarter of its power¹⁾ and improving the energy efficiency of snowmaking and facilities. Some have set ambitious targets to become carbon-neutral or powered 100% by renewables in the next decade. Skiers and pro athletes have also organized through groups like Protect Our Winters to push for climate action, making the “fight for snow” a public campaign. One industry spokesperson observed, “If there are two industries in the world that know that climate is changing, it’s the insurance companies and the ski resorts.”¹ Ski operators see the writing on the wall and are increasingly vocal about the need to rein in greenhouse gas emissions to save winter.

Looking Ahead

The intersection of climate science and outdoor recreation is becoming increasingly focused on the ski slopes of North America. The data are unequivocal, showing that winters are warming and snow is diminishing, painting a challenging picture for the future of skiing in the U.S. and Canada. In the coming decades, ski seasons will likely continue shrinking, and many lower-elevation ski areas could struggle to remain viable. Yet, the story is not unmitigated doom–at least not if proactive measures are taken. The ski industry’s response, from technological innovations in snow management to advocating for climate solutions, demonstrates a determination to adapt. Some resorts will undoubtedly close or contract, but others will innovate and endure, albeit in a changed form.

For the general public and the millions who cherish winter sports, the changes on the mountains are a tangible reminder of climate change’s impact in our own backyards. The plight of skiing has even been called a “canary in the coal mine” for climate impacts–a highly visible signal of broader trends affecting water resources, ecosystems, and economies dependent on the natural rhythm of the seasons.¹ Whether you ski or not, the implications of vanishing snowpacks reach far beyond the lift-served runs, affecting summer water supplies, wildfire risks, and livelihoods across the West and beyond.

In the end, preserving the joy of a powder day for future generations will require local adaptation and global action. As skiers carve turns on increasingly tenuous snow each winter, scientists, resort operators, and mountain communities work together to chart a sustainable path forward. The consensus is clear: without significant efforts to stabilize the climate, the future of skiing in North America looks ever more precarious. But with concerted action–reducing emissions, adapting where possible, and holding onto every snowflake–we just might keep winter white and wonderful for years to come, despite the warming world.