Weather
Light early-week snow is the main near-term story for South America, with the most reliable mountain totals through Wednesday night around 5-15 cm where the wave lines up best. Several major areas remain closed, so this reads more as an early-season mountain snow and coverage forecast than a lift-served powder chase. Confidence is strongest from Sunday afternoon, May 3, through Wednesday night, May 6, while late-week and early-next-week storms carry much larger spread, especially from the Chilean volcanoes into Patagonia.
Sunday night into Monday keeps the steadiest snow at Cerro Castor, while most central and northern resorts stay quiet. Individual models converge on low snow levels near 0-600 meters around Tierra del Fuego, with temperatures near -5 C to 1 C and SLRs roughly 6-13, so snow quality should range from dense to fair rather than especially fluffy. They diverge on whether meaningful snow reaches Cerro Catedral this early; most keep northern Patagonia much lighter. Winds look mostly manageable at Cerro Castor, though one solution is gustier, so confidence is good on snow but lower on wind impacts.
Tuesday into Wednesday is the best-defined early-week wave, focused on Las Leñas with lighter accumulations into the central Andes and Chilean volcanoes. The individual models broadly agree on Las Leñas receiving the best early-week snowfall, but intensity still ranges from a light event in one solution to a more solid burst in several others. Snow levels during the snowfall run mainly near 1,600-2,800 meters from the volcanoes northward, making lower elevations marginal and favoring mid and upper mountain terrain. SLRs mostly sit near 3-11 in the wetter areas, so expect dense or even wet snow, and wind guidance diverges with some stronger central-Andes gusts around 50-80 km/h.
From Thursday into the weekend and early next week, the pattern is less certain but supports localized southern-zone snow potential around 10-30 cm where the wetter track verifies. Individual models diverge on the late-week wave’s intensity and placement: some keep central Andes totals light while others produce a more organized cold shot, and the AIFS is notably wetter for northern Patagonia and the volcanoes. A second signal from Sunday through Wednesday is even less settled, with GDPS very wet for Corralco and Nevados de Chillán and GFS much more focused on Cerro Castor. This period is speculative, so that number should be treated as a conservative broad ballpark rather than a committed resort total.
Resort Forecast Totals (Sun May 03 – Wed May 06)
- Las Leñas – 8-12 cm
- Cerro Castor – 8-10 cm
- Nevados de Chillán – 6-9 cm
- Valle Nevado – 3-4 cm
- El Colorado – 2-3 cm
- Corralco – 2-3 cm
- La Parva – 1-2 cm
- Portillo – 1-2 cm
- Cerro Catedral – 0 cm
- Chapelco – 0 cm
