Industry News
International travel to the United States is cooling off—and some in the ski industry are beginning to feel the chill. According to the latest forecast from October 1 by the U.S. Travel Association, inbound travel in 2025 is projected to fall by 6.3%, keeping total international visitation 15% below pre-pandemic levels.
Before the pandemic, the USA saw between 75 to 77 million visitors annually. The peak was reached in 2018, when just shy of 80 million international tourists arrived in the States. Historically, the largest group of tourists came from Canada, with approximately 20 million visitors from its northern neighbor. The second largest group came from Mexico, with another 15-18 million visitors from the neighbor to the south. In distant third were overseas guests from the UK with about 3 to 4 million annual tourists and Germany with around 2 million visitors.
While only about 3% of U.S. skier visits typically come from overseas guests, certain destinations—especially Vail, Aspen, Park City, and resorts near the Canadian border—rely heavily on international travelers to fill hotel rooms and lift lines. In Northern Vermont, Canadians can make up half of all ski guests, while the Aspen Chamber of Commerce shared that they rely on international visitation from Australia, Brazil, Mexico, and Canada during the January-April timeframe. For those resorts, the decline in tourism can have a considerable negative impact.
According to the forecast by U.S. Travel Association, the 6.3% drop forecast for 2025 stems mainly from a decline of Canadian visitors which are projected to be down by 22.2% this year. Recent data supports this forecast: Statistics Canada reported a 35% year-on-year decline in Canadians crossing by car in September, following a 34% drop in August. Air travel was down 27% in September, slightly worse than in August when air travel was down 25% year-on-year.
This dramatic fall in Canadian guests will certainly have a considerable impact on ski resorts close to the border. According to Vermont Ski Areas Association (Ski Vermont), Vermont’s ski areas saw a total of 4.16 million skier visits during the 2024-25 season and ski tourism contributes around $1.6 billion (or 40%) to Vermont’s total travel and tourism industry. For resorts along the border where visitors from Canada make up half the guests, these figures could translate into a potentially massive shortfall and endanger the 13,000 jobs in Vermont that are tied to ski tourism.
Resorts are doing their utmost to counter the decline in border crossings from Canada. Jay Peak’s President, Steve Wright, has personally called over 100 Canadian families to counter the “softening in bookings,” to assure them that nothing has changed at the resort. Jay Peak also runs a long-standing “at-par-policy” which allows Canadian guests to pay 50% of vacation packages (lodging plus lift tickets) in Canadian funds, and 100% at par on admissions like lift tickets, Pump House waterpark passes, tram rides, golf rounds, Nordic access, and season passes. “Canadians are not just visitors; they are part of what makes this mountain what it is,” Wright emphasized to SnowBrains. They are not just a meaningful share of the business, “When Canadian guests are not here, it feels like we are missing part of what makes Jay Peak, Jay Peak.”
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Across in Maine, Big Rock is hoping to lure back Canadian visitors with its flexible ticketing system, which enables visitors to redeem day tickets on any day during the season without blackout dates. Big Rock’s Assistant General Manager, Aaron Damon, states that ”prior to COVID, [Canadians] made up 30% of our ski visitors including both season pass holders and day ticket users.” But the changes implemented to border crossings during the pandemic are lingering to this day, meaning that Canadian visitors never quite bounced back and numbers are “approaching 20%, primarily through day ticket purchases. We anticipate that once border crossings become more stable and convenient, many of these day ticket holders will return as season pass holders.”
However, the current trend for border crossings is going the opposite way: opening hours were cut from January 6, 2025, at several Canadian-American border crossings. Four Vermont border crossings—Alburgh, Canaan, North Troy, and West Berkshire—have cut operation hours by 50% from previously 24 hours to 12 hours a day, opening from 8:00 a.m. to 8 p.m. since January 6, 2025. Trump is now proposing to cut this down even further and shutting the border crossing at 4 p.m., meaning Canadian day trippers would have to leave way before last lifts in order to avoid getting stuck or the border or driving around to other, smaller crossings out of the way with longer operating hours.
Further west, in high-end destinations like Aspen and Vail, report that bookings are stable—or even rising. Aspen is pacing 8.9% ahead for November 2025 to April 2026 bookings, according to Eliza Voss from the Aspen Chamber Resort Association. Demand from South America, particularly Mexico and Brazil, has surged, offsetting weaker bookings from Canada and Australia. “The main variable for Mexicans to book trips to the USA including ski trips is the exchange rate,” Carlos Ulibarri from Mexican travel agency Brandstravel explains. A stronger peso means more purchasing power for Mexican customers. “Having an inexpensive dollar helps to increase the number of travelers from Mexico,” he adds. The U.S. dollar has fallen 10% versus the Mexican peso has since Trump’s 2025 inauguration.
Indeed, Mexico has quietly overtaken Canada as the top source market for U.S. inbound tourism, with arrivals expected to hit 17.9 million this year—up 5.5%—while Canadian visits fall to 15.7 million. Ulibarri highlights the unique opportunity for U.S. tourist destinations to embrace the popularity with Mexican travelers and tailor its product offerings to this highly prosperous market group, “Destinations must focus on creating culturally relevant, value-driven campaigns that speak directly to the Mexican traveler.”
It’s a sentiment echoed by Miriam Braverman from Mexican travel agent Ski Shop. “Fortunately, our business has not been negatively impacted by U.S. policies, as we primarily serve a high-end clientele that continues to travel to ski resorts in the U.S., including Aspen,” Braverman shared. “The main challenge we are beginning to notice is that the U.S. visa application process has become slower and more complicated.” While this delay is affecting some of her customers, she stresses that demand in Mexico remains strong.
Meanwhile European travelers to the United States have reported that the new Mobile Passport Control (MCP) system has made immigration procedures smoother upon arrival. “Not a single traveller has reported problems with entry,” Tila Krause-Dünow from CANUSA Touristik reports. “On the contrary: with the newly introduced MPC, entry is faster and easier than ever before—I can confirm this from my own experience,” the German-American travel specialist shared. Krause-Dünow believes that for many Germans America remains a dream destination and cheaper flights and hotels have been keeping demand steady. While visitation from Germany is down 15% from 2024 to an anticipated 1.7 million visitors for 2025, USA remains the most popular overseas long-distance destination for Germans by far. Krause-Dünow also reports, that demand for Canada has increased by about 20-25% but from a much lower base.
The fact that travel from Germany is down 15% German travel agents see more as a sign of the economic times than an anti-Trump sentiment. “We notice the media amplifies every negative headline about the U.S., but our travelers report normal, friendly experiences,” Sandra Kätsch from Faszination Ski said. “We attribute the decline in ski bookings to a demographic development and there are simply fewer and fewer young people learning to ski.” In addition, Germany is facing its own economic uncertainty which Kätsch believes has a bigger impact than anti-Trump sentiment, and acknowledges that the “global geo-political situation is not relaxed.”
While Australians are also dealing with economic issues as the country is going through a cost of living crisis, antipodeans seemingly feel a lot stronger about Trump’s policies and rhetoric. Australian travel agents have reported a decline in bookings to U.S. ski resorts by about 30%. “Many of my longtime clients actually refuse to visit the U.S. now while [Trump] is in power,” Nick Farr from SkiAspen admits. Farr has been group tours to Aspen for 31 years and usually books 45 days in Aspen—this year it is only 30 days. He admits that many of his regular customers are plain out boycotting the USA. It is a sentiment also witnessed by Toby Withers, Director at Travelplan, Australia’s leading operator of snow holidays. He shares that many customers stated that they won’t return to the U.S. “until Trump and this administration are gone.”
Nevertheless, Aspen remains to be the most popular destination in the United States for Australian ski tourists and Travelplan’s bookings for Aspen were slightly up, while overall U.S. business is down 30%. “I am sure some is FX and price increase related, but the majority is Trump related,” Withers reasons. The Australian dollar has weakened versus the U.S. dollar and, according to Farr, flight prices from Australia to America remain very high, unlike European flight prices. Australian snow tourism overall, however, remains stable, and Travelplan’s customers are instead booking holidays to Japan, Canada, and Europe, while Farr reports some increased interest in American resorts that represent incredible value, like Heavenly, California. Yet, Aspen remains Australia’s top U.S. destination, even as Australians increasingly turn to Japan, Canada, and Europe instead.
While the current travel trends into the United States are concerning for those whose livelihood is dependent on tourism, there is hope that a proactive approach as well as a favorable exchange rate can counter some of the political sentiment felt by some international travelers. There are opportunities for providers that can pivot to appeal to those willing and able to travel and entice them with tailored deals. Likewise, international travelers should embrace the favorable exchange rate and discounted offerings available in the U.S. right now. Sometimes the smartest decision can be to go against the trend.
Ultimately, while politics may shape perceptions, it need not dictate travel plans. For many Europeans and South Americans, currency advantages and competitive airfares mean that the United States remains an excellent value for a ski holiday. Choosing to stay away on principle may feel symbolic, but it is not Trump or his government that bears the cost. It is the small resorts, local businesses, and seasonal workers who depend on winter tourism for their livelihoods.
