Weather
An alpine-season outlook built for skiers. What to expect, where to go, and why the atmosphere may tilt toward colder intrusions and powder later in the season.
The Bottom Line
- Background state: La Niña is in place and is favored to persist through mid-winter, with a higher chance of neutral conditions by late winter. That setup often feeds an energetic Atlantic jet and increases the odds of blocking episodes over the North Atlantic during the back half of the season.
- Stratosphere hint: The equatorial stratospheric wind (QBO) has turned easterly at ski-relevant levels. An easterly QBO raises the probability of a weaker polar vortex and a sudden stratospheric warming. A few weeks after that kind of event, Europe frequently experiences a negative AO/NAO regime with colder air and lower snowlines.
- Ocean backdrop: The North Atlantic and Mediterranean are warmer than usual for the season. Warm water supercharges storm moisture and snowfall rates when cold air is in place, yet pushes snowlines higher during marginal events.
- Cryosphere setup: Arctic sea ice has remained on the low side relative to long-term averages. This affects heat fluxes into the polar atmosphere and can modulate the strength and position of the jet and the polar vortex.
- Seasonal model signal: Leading multi-model guidance leans warmer than average across much of Europe, with precipitation near or a bit above average toward the northwest and more mixed signals farther south. A warm seasonal mean does not cancel multi-week powder windows. The details still depend on block timing.
What this means for skiers: Expect higher snowlines and wetter storms early, then a rising chance of colder outbreaks and lower snowlines from late January through March. High, glaciated terrain skis reliably all season. Mid and lower elevations benefit most if a negative NAO locks in for a few weeks late season.
Why a front-loaded rain line and back-loaded snow line are likely
1) ENSO: La Niña into mid-winter
For Europe, ENSO is not a single switch. Even so, La Niña winters frequently feature a stronger and more variable jet over the North Atlantic. This raises the chance of Greenland and North Atlantic blocking later in the season, especially as other drivers line up.
2) QBO: easterly phase favors vortex disruptions
The easterly phase of the QBO increases the odds of a weaker mid-winter stratospheric polar vortex. That in turn raises the probability of a sudden stratospheric warming, followed by a surface pattern that often trends negative AO/NAO over the next 10 to 30 days. That is prime time for broader European cold and for lowering snowlines in the Alps, the Balkans, and the Carpathians.
3) Ocean warmth and Arctic ice
Exceptionally warm North Atlantic and Mediterranean waters increase available moisture and storm energy. If continental cold undercuts the moisture, heavy snowfall develops quickly. If temperatures sit near freezing at resort elevations, snowlines jump and rain-on-snow becomes more likely at low and mid-elevations. Low Arctic sea ice relative to the long-term mean can also promote high-latitude blocking later in winter.
4) Seasonal models: a warm-lean baseline with room for winter
Seasonal forecasts point to a warm-leaning seasonal average for Europe. That does not preclude cold, snowy multi-week windows. Models struggle with the onset and tropospheric coupling of sudden stratospheric warmings, as well as the exact timing of blocks. Travel plans should respect the broad warm lean while remaining flexible for colder regimes inside the season.
5) Subseasonal wild card: the MJO
The Madden-Julian Oscillation modulates the Atlantic jet and European regimes on 1 to 3 week scales. When convective phases progress through the West Pacific and into the Western Hemisphere (commonly described as phases 7 to 1), the odds of Greenland blocking and a negative NAO increase about one to three weeks later. That sequence is a classic trigger for European powder windows.
6) Solar cycle: interesting, but secondary
Solar cycle variability may influence the winter NAO, although the signal is weak compared with ENSO, the QBO, and internal variability. Treat it as background context rather than a primary driver.
Region-by-region outlook for skiers
The Alps (France, Switzerland, Austria, Italy)
December: Stormy and relatively mild on average. Snowlines often sit near 1,600 to 2,000 meters during strong Atlantic pushes. High, glaciated massifs and high basins build base efficiently (think upper sectors of Espace Killy, 3 Vallées, Verbier, Zermatt/Cervinia, Saas-Fee, Arlberg, Ischgl). Southern Alps lean on snowmaking early, then score big when northerly shots clip over the crest into the Po side.
January: A gradual increase in cold intrusions if blocking flickers near Greenland or the Norwegian Sea. Expect mixed-phase storms. Prioritize elevation and northerly aspects for consistency. Rain-on-snow below roughly 1,500 meters remains a risk during brief warm sectors.
February to early March: Highest probability window for a negative NAO if a stratospheric disruption couples downward. Snowlines lower, storm tracks bend, and mid-mountain domains can ski cold and deep for multi-week stretches. South-flow events can deliver on the southern Alps when cold continental air meets a moisture-rich Mediterranean.
Late March to April: Strong sun and warm SSTs favor classic spring cycles. Post-block patterns can still produce powder resets, especially above 2,000 meters. Glaciers and high bowls stay reliable.
Alps bottom line: Early season favors altitude for reliability. Prime powder risk increases late January through March, especially if a negative NAO takes hold. Expect denser snow during warm sectors and elevated avalanche danger during rapid loading and warm-ups.
Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden, Finland)
La Niña winters and neutral to negative NAO spells often support colder, snowier conditions across northern Europe. Expect good early-season cold in Lapland and the Scandinavian interior, with frequent refreshers. West-facing Norwegian resorts will ride a storm parade. Low elevations there see the rain-snow line oscillate, while inland and higher terrain score repeated deep days.
Pyrenees (Western France, Andorra, Spain)
Warm Atlantic input favors moist and energetic storms. Early season often brings high snowlines on south and west exposures, with rain encroaching below about 1,700 to 2,000 meters during strong westerlies. The best Pyrenean windows often follow mid-winter when colder continental air undercuts the flow. February looks promising if the NAO trends negative.
How the big teleconnections translate to snow on the ground
- NAO/AO: A positive NAO usually means milder and wetter in northwest Europe with higher snowlines. A negative NAO weakens the westerlies, encourages blocking, draws in colder continental air, and lowers snowlines. For skiers across the Alps and central Europe, negative NAO is the friend you want.
- Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW): Any given winter has a fair chance of at least one SSW. The surface signal over Europe often turns colder during the 10 to 30 days that follow. The easterly QBO increases that probability.
- MJO: When the MJO organizes in phases that historically precede blocking over Greenland, the odds of cold and snow in the Alps and Balkans rise one to three weeks later. Use this to time trips inside the season.
Month-by-month outlook
- December: Best reliability above roughly 1,800 to 2,000 meters in the Alps on north-facing terrain. Scandinavia skis cold on most days. The Pyrenees build base above about 1,900 meters, with mixed phases below.
- January: Mixed signals. Look for intermittent cold shots and fast refreshers in the Alps and Scandinavia. Scotland becomes viable during short negative NAO spells.
- February: Highest odds for negative AO/NAO if an SSW occurs and couples downward. This is the powder month for central and eastern Alps, the Carpathians, and the Balkans. The Pyrenees improve when northerlies dig south.
- March: Many La Niña winters hold late cold. Expect excellent spring powder-then-corn sequences above 2,000 meters in the Alps and steady conditions in Scandinavia.
Confidence and uncertainty
Reasons for confidence:
- La Niña and an easterly QBO increase the probability of late-winter blocking and colder outbreaks.
- Warm Atlantic and Mediterranean waters support high-moisture, high-energy storms. When cold air is present, snowfall can be prolific.
Limits to confidence:
- The timing and strength of any sudden stratospheric warming and the degree of downward coupling remain uncertain. A small shift can move the best window by a few weeks.
- MJO impacts are powerful but subseasonal. Success depends on staying flexible and targeting the right two to three weeks.
Recap
Plan for a two-act winter. Act 1 brings storm energy with a higher rain line. Act 2 delivers a rising chance of blocking, colder intrusions, and classic powder weeks, especially from late January through March. Build altitude and flexibility into your plans, and watch for three telltale signals: an easterly QBO already in place, any sudden stratospheric warming headlines, and MJO phases that historically precede Greenland blocking. When those align, Europe tends to ski very well.
