Weather
This forecast was created at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday, November 11, 2025.
A midweek winter storm targets the Sierra Wednesday night through Friday with strong southwest winds, high initial snow levels that trend lower, and dense-to-fair quality snow favoring higher elevations. Mammoth leads with 14″–21″ through Saturday, while the Tahoe crest and adjacent high country collect roughly 6″–17″ with the bulk Thursday night; Friday afternoon into Saturday turns quieter, a weak wave may brush the range Sunday, and a cool, active pattern is favored to return next week.
Wednesday night through Friday brings the transition from warm and dry to wintry conditions at elevation, punctuated by powerful ridge-top winds. Southwest winds ramp up Wednesday, peaking along the crest Thursday with gusts commonly 75–100 mph and 40–55 mph in wind-prone high terrain, before easing later Friday. Snow levels start above 8,000 feet on Wednesday, lower to roughly 5,000–6,000 feet on Thursday with some timing uncertainty, and may dip toward 4,000–5,000 feet early Friday as colder air filters in. Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) run mostly 5–9:1 during the core of the event, so expect base-building, denser snow with a slightly drier finish as temperatures fall late.
Tahoe and the northern–central Sierra see a light Thursday appetizer followed by the main burst Thursday night. Light accumulations on Thursday give way to the primary band on Thursday night that stacks up the majority of totals for Palisades Tahoe, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood, Northstar, Heavenly, Dodge Ridge, and Bear Valley. Snow levels hover near 6,800–7,600 feet across this belt during peak precipitation, favoring the mid and upper mountain areas, while base elevations around 6,200–6,900 feet flirt with the rain–snow line at times. SLRs generally sit in the 7–9:1 range here, so snow quality trends chalky and supportive rather than blower, with southwest ridge winds 20–35 mph and stronger gusts on exposed crests impacting the high alpine. Most Tahoe-area resorts remain closed until later in November, so this round mainly builds an early base ahead of planned openings.
The Eastern Sierra—and Mammoth in particular—stands out for storm-long totals and timing that aligns with Friday’s planned opening. Snow begins at Mammoth Wednesday night, ramps Thursday, and peaks Thursday night, delivering the lion’s share of a 14″–21″ tally through Saturday. Snow levels there start high near 9,300 feet Wednesday night and trend toward 8,100 feet by Friday night, so the upper mountain takes the bulk early with the lower mountain improving as colder air arrives. SLRs average 8–10:1 at the peak with a modestly drier refresh late Friday night, and local winds are breezy but generally less extreme than the Tahoe crest. With opening day on Friday, expect early-season surfaces to set up under a dense base with a slightly drier topping into Saturday.
Friday afternoon into Saturday trends quieter before a weak wave grazes the region Sunday, and the broader pattern favors a cool, active stretch next week. Showers taper and winds ease Friday, leaving a mainly dry and cool Saturday for consolidation. A minor disturbance may bring spotty light snow Sunday, likely inconsequential for deepening except on the highest terrain. Looking into the 6–10 and 8–14 day periods, odds favor below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation across California and Nevada, which supports additional rounds of mountain snow and continued base building, especially above 5,000–6,000 feet.
Resort Forecast Totals
- Mammoth – 14″–21″ Wed night (11/12) – Sat (11/15)
- Kirkwood – 11″–17″ Thu (11/13) – Fri night (11/14)
- Bear Valley – 8″–13″ Thu (11/13) – Fri (11/14)
- Sugar Bowl – 6″–9″ Thu (11/13) – Fri night (11/14)
- Palisades Tahoe – 6″–9″ Thu (11/13) – Fri night (11/14)
- Heavenly – 4″–6″ Thu night (11/13) – Fri night (11/14)
- Mt Rose – 3″–4″ Thu (11/13) – Fri night (11/14)
- Dodge Ridge – 2″–4″ Thu night (11/13)
- Northstar – 2″–4″ Thu night (11/13) – Fri (11/14)
