Weather
California skiing stays spring-like through the weekend, then turns cooler, windier, and more wintry from Tuesday into Friday morning as a two-part Sierra storm brings the best snow to the crest. The most meaningful accumulations favor Kirkwood, Bear Valley, Palisades Tahoe, and Sugar Bowl, while Mammoth looks lighter and Southern California stays mostly dry. Confidence is highest from Tuesday through Friday morning, when the timing of the pattern change and the drop in snow levels are clearest even though snowfall distribution still varies across the range.
Saturday through Monday starts warm, dry, and firmly in spring mode. Guidance is closely aligned on no meaningful snowfall through at least Monday morning, with Sierra snow levels generally above 8,500 feet and often near 9,500 to 10,500 feet, so existing snow softens quickly each afternoon. Resort-level temperatures stay well above freezing, especially at lower and mid elevations, while afternoon ridge breezes are mostly manageable before a windier turn late Monday. Dodge Ridge is closed, and Mount Baldy remains temporarily closed with no sign of a meaningful reopening storm, so the best active terrain stays in the open Sierra resorts.
The pattern change arrives late Monday into Wednesday, and the guidance converges on cooler air and increasing wind but still diverges on how productive the first push will be. Snow begins first on the upper Sierra, with Tuesday snow levels mostly around 7,000 to 8,000 feet near Tahoe and closer to 7,500 to 8,500 feet around Mammoth, so lower-mountain coverage is less reliable early while upper-mountain terrain does better. Snow quality also starts on the heavy side, with SLRs largely in the 6 to 9 range, meaning dense to only moderately dry snow. Expect a modest opening round Tuesday, then steadier accumulation building Tuesday night and Wednesday as winds strengthen over exposed terrain.
Wednesday night into Friday morning is the most favorable stretch for new snow, but this is also where the guidance spreads out most on exact placement and totals. All guidance still agrees on a colder finish, with Sierra snow levels dropping to about 5,000 to 6,000 feet Thursday and locally 4,000 to 5,000 feet by the tail end, while snow quality improves into roughly the 10 to 15 range for better upper-mountain conditions. The storm should deliver around 9″-24″ at the snowiest open Sierra resorts, about 6″-10″ at Mammoth, and little to no snow in Southern California. Exposed ridges also look rough at times, with many solutions supporting 50 to 80 mph gusts and locally stronger wind near the Tahoe crest and east side before conditions dry out quickly Friday and trend quieter into the weekend, with only low-confidence light snow chances returning next week.
Resort Forecast Totals (Tue Mar 31 – Fri Apr 03)
- Kirkwood – 12″-24″
- Bear Valley – 11″-20″
- Palisades Tahoe – 9″-18″
- Sugar Bowl – 9″-18″
- Dodge Ridge – 6″-13″
- Mammoth – 6″-10″
- Northstar – 4″-8″
- Mt. Rose – 3″-6″
- Heavenly – 3″-6″
- Diamond Peak – 2″-4″
- Mount Baldy – 0″
