Weather
California gets one short but useful Sierra storm from early Tuesday through Wednesday evening, with around 1-2 feet on the favored west-slope higher terrain and much less for the lower Tahoe bases and Mount Baldy. The guidance is in good agreement on a windy lead-in Monday, a colder turn as the storm comes inland Tuesday, and the best ski value staying at the still-open higher mountains. Lower-elevation Tahoe terrain looks more mixed at the front edge because snow levels start relatively high, then conditions improve as colder air settles in Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Monday is mainly a wind day, then snow reaches the Sierra before dawn Tuesday and intensifies through Tuesday afternoon. The guidance is tightly clustered on timing and on southwest ridge gusts pushing into the 45-60 mph range, strongest around exposed Tahoe ridges and Mammoth, so lift and visibility impacts look more certain than the exact resort-by-resort totals. Snow levels generally start near 6,500-7,500 feet, with a few solutions a little higher around Mammoth and the Tahoe crest, so some lower Tahoe bases may open with mixed or wetter snow while upper mountain terrain is already accumulating. Early snow quality looks dense to fair, with SLRs mostly in the 6-10 range before colder air arrives.
Tuesday night into Wednesday is when the snow quality improves most, and confidence is highest from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. The models continue to converge on lowering snow levels to roughly 4,500-6,500 feet by Wednesday, which should turn nearly all open Sierra terrain to snow and sharpen the difference between the higher west slope and the lower Tahoe bases. Intensity guidance still spreads on which mountains do best, but it consistently favors Kirkwood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge, Sugar Bowl, and Palisades Tahoe over the east side. Snow should stack up heavier and denser at first, then trend more moderate to lighter with SLRs lifting into the 10-14 range, with a few higher-elevation periods near Mammoth getting fluffier before showers taper.
From Thursday through Sunday, most guidance settles into a quieter pattern with only spotty Sierra leftovers, and the next better chance looks like a low-confidence 3-8 inches late Monday into Tuesday, April 27-28. The spread during the quieter stretch is small enough that any snow before then looks minor rather than a meaningful reset. Farther south, Mount Baldy stays on the weak southern edge of this week’s storm, with gusty southwest to west wind from Tuesday into early Wednesday but little if any accumulation. By April 27-28 the guidance diverges sharply on timing, intensity, snow levels, and wind, with one snowier outlier and most solutions keeping the follow-up lighter and more scattered, so the broader unsettled signal is worth watching but not locking in yet.
Resort Forecast Totals (Tue Apr 21 – Wed Apr 22)
- Kirkwood – 17-25 inches
- Bear Valley – 15-22 inches
- Dodge Ridge – 13-19 inches
- Sugar Bowl – 11-16 inches
- Palisades Tahoe – 10-15 inches
- Mammoth – 9-13 inches
- Northstar – 5-7 inches
- Heavenly – 4-6 inches
- Mt. Rose – 3-5 inches
- Diamond Peak – 3-4 inches
- Mount Baldy – 0 inches
