Weather
A warm ridge gives way to a wet, windier early-week pattern, with the best snowfall focused from northern Idaho into western Montana and the Canadian resorts. Saturday through Sunday stay relatively quiet and warmer, then snow ramps up Monday into Tuesday as a moisture push spreads across the Northern Rockies with snow levels rising and falling through the event. Expect a stretch of denser, more upside-down snow at times, followed by a colder, higher-quality finish as snow levels drop and winds increase late Tuesday into Wednesday. Farther out, the pattern leans warmer than normal with periodic shots of moisture favoring the northern tier, while confidence drops quickly on the timing and placement of any late-week waves.
Saturday through Sunday night stays mostly calm for skiing, but it will not be still. Temperatures moderate each day and a broad southerly to southeasterly wind trend develops, with sustained speeds often in the 15-30 mph range in exposed zones and higher terrain. Any new snow in this window is limited and spotty, so this is more about softening conditions, improving visibility between cloud decks, and watching for wind-affected surfaces on ridgelines. Model guidance is tightly clustered on the quiet weekend theme, and the main variability is how aggressively the winds mix down into individual valleys and base areas.
Monday-Tuesday Moisture Surge is the main event, and the models are largely converging on a long-duration window with the steadiest snow Monday night into Tuesday. Snow levels rise during the warm-advection phase, so lower base areas flirt with heavier, denser snowfall at times while mid and upper mountain terrain does much better for pure snow. Across the region, storm snow quality often runs moderate to dense early, with SLRs commonly in the 8-13:1 range, and pockets briefly higher when rates increase. The better totals cluster from northern Idaho into western Montana and up into the Canadian resorts, where it is reasonable to expect widespread 6″-15″ in favored terrain, with a few standouts pushing 12″-22″. Confidence is solid on the timing window, with more spread on exact intensity and how high snow levels surge during the warmest portion of the storm.
Tuesday night-Wednesday Colder Finish brings a noticeable drop in snow levels and a windier feel, with snow showers lingering as the moisture shifts north and east. This is when snow quality improves most consistently, with SLRs more commonly around the 12-16:1 range, so even lighter totals can ski better than the earlier, warmer phase. The models generally agree on increasing winds and a transition to more showery, terrain-driven snowfall, but they diverge on where the best bands set up and how long the organized snow showers persist in any one location. Looking deeper into the medium range, the broader signal favors warmer-than-normal temperatures with episodic precipitation chances that tend to focus along the northern tier, so expect more windows of potential than locked-in storm specifics after midweek.
Resort Forecast Totals (Mon 2/23 – Wed 2/25)
- Schweitzer – 13″-22″
- Grand Targhee – 9″-15″
- Whitefish Mountain – 9″-15″
- Brundage – 9″-15″
- Jackson Hole – 7″-12″
- RED Mountain – 7″-11″
- Tamarack – 6″-10″
- Big White – 6″-9″
- Revelstoke – 5″-9″
- Lake Louise – 5″-7″
- Bridger Bowl – 4″-7″
- Sun Valley – 4″-7″
- Big Sky – 4″-7″
- Bogus Basin – 4″-7″
- Banff Sunshine – 3″-5″
- Mount Norquay – 3″-5″
