Weather
An early-season winter storm peaks Monday night to Tuesday with the deepest totals in the southern Sierra and a healthy refresh for Tahoe, followed by tapering showers Wednesday morning and a dry, cool finish to the week. Expect snow levels to start near 6,500 to 7,400 feet on Monday, then fall overnight and into Tuesday as colder air arrives. Ridge winds increase from the south to southwest ahead of the peak, then turn northwest behind the system, strongest over exposed summits where gusts reach the 30 to 40+ mph range.
Monday through Tuesday brings a widespread Sierra snowfall with the main punch Monday night into Tuesday. Snow levels run near or a bit above many Tahoe base elevations early Monday, so the first precipitation can be mixed at lower bases, but it trends to all snow by Monday night as levels fall toward 6,100 to 6,500 feet. In the southern Sierra, colder profiles arrive sooner, and levels dip as low as roughly 5,500 feet by Tuesday night. Snow quality starts on the denser side for the northern Sierra with snow-to-liquid ratios generally in the 7–11:1 range, then improves late Monday night into Tuesday; farther south the colder column supports notably lighter, drier snow with ratios pushing into the mid-teens during the peak.
Monday night to Tuesday is the peak, favoring Mammoth and the higher summits from Kirkwood to Palisades. Mammoth takes the jackpot with the longest duration and the coldest profiles. Around Tahoe, accumulations focus above 7,000 to 8,000 feet with a chalky to progressively softer surface by Tuesday as temperatures settle in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees at mid elevations; Heavenly sees a quicker hit limited to Tuesday night and leans a bit denser. Ridge-top winds are strongest during this window.
Wednesday trends to scattered leftovers in the morning with drying, cool weather taking over by afternoon. Temperatures remain below average through midweek, then slowly moderate toward typical mid-October readings by Friday and Saturday under fair skies and lighter winds. A follow-up wave late in the weekend is possible and would favor the northern Sierra if it tracks far enough south; looking beyond, the 6–10 day period tilts cooler than normal with a higher chance of additional precipitation across the interior West, then a faster Pacific flow in the 8–14 day window keeps periodic storm chances in play for the northern Sierra while the southern Sierra sees more variability.
Resort Forecast Totals
- Mammoth – 12″-16″ Mon night (10/13) – Wed night (10/15)
- Mt Rose – 11″-15″ Mon (10/13) – Wed night (10/15)
- Kirkwood – 10″-13″ Mon (10/13) – Wed (10/15)
- Palisades Tahoe – 9″-12″ Mon (10/13) – Wed (10/15)
- Northstar – 8″-11″ Mon (10/13) – Wed night (10/15)
- Sugar Bowl – 7″-9″ Mon (10/13) – Wed (10/15)
- Heavenly – 3″-4″ Tue night (10/14)
