Weather
A modest Thursday and Friday Cascade refresh will be followed by a colder and much more active pattern from Sunday into next weekend. The near-term snow is mostly a maintenance event with generally 1″-7″ through Friday night, while the larger Sunday-onward cycle should deliver much deeper accumulations but with lower confidence on exact timing and storm-to-storm splits. Expect denser snow first, then better quality as colder air settles in early next week, plus periodic upper-mountain wind that may affect exposed terrain. The highest confidence for precise snowfall totals is in the short-term window below, and confidence decreases stepwise after Friday night as the forecast stretches into a long-duration storm regime.
Thursday through Friday night has the tightest model convergence on timing, intensity, snow levels, and wind impacts. Snow showers continue Thursday, then a weak frontal push Thursday night into Friday morning keeps light to moderate snowfall going across the Cascades, with best consistency in Washington and lighter totals farther south. During active snowfall, snow levels are mostly around 2,500 to 4,500 feet Thursday, then trend upward Friday toward about 5,000 to 6,500 feet, which favors wetter snow at lower and mid elevations late Friday. Snow quality in this window is mainly dense, with SLRs around 6-11 and occasional 10-12 periods at colder hours. Winds are generally moderate but not quiet, with many ridgelines in the 20-35 mph range and stronger exposed terrain at times, especially around the Oregon volcanoes.
From Sunday into Tuesday, guidance converges on a stronger storm cycle with colder air and longer-duration mountain snowfall. Timing agreement is best on precipitation ramping up Sunday, with snow levels dropping to near pass level Sunday night and then around 1,000 to 1,500 feet Monday morning during the coldest push. Intensity agreement is moderate rather than tight, but all guidance families support widespread accumulating snow at Washington Cascades resorts and solid totals at higher Oregon terrain. Snow quality should improve compared with Thursday and Friday, with SLRs commonly 9-16, moving from dense or moderate snow toward moderate to lighter snow in colder bursts. Outside the short-term confidence window, a conservative expectation through Tuesday night is roughly 12″-30″ for many Washington Cascade resorts, 8″-20″ near Timberline, and 4″-12″ near Mt Bachelor.
From Wednesday into next weekend, guidance diverges on persistence, snow levels, and wind, so confidence shifts to broader ranges only. The wetter camp keeps frequent pulses and stronger wind into Saturday, while the drier camp tapers snowfall sooner between systems. That spread creates meaningful uncertainty in both hourly rates and final totals, especially after Thursday. Snow levels during snowfall likely oscillate between roughly 1,500 and 4,500 feet with short colder dips, and snow quality looks mixed with SLRs mostly 7-13, favoring dense to moderate texture rather than consistently fluffy turns. The broader week-two signal still favors an active precipitation pattern across the Northwest, so a full dry break looks unlikely. A realistic conservative add-on from Wednesday onward is about 8″-24″ for Washington Cascades resorts, 6″-18″ around Timberline, and 4″-12″ near Mt Bachelor, with locally higher outcomes possible if the wetter scenario verifies.
Resort Forecast Totals (Thu Mar 05 – Fri Mar 06)
- Stevens Pass – 5″-7″
- Timberline – 5″-6″
- Snoqualmie Pass – 4″-5″
- Crystal Mountain – 3″-4″
- Mt Baker – 3″-4″
- Whistler – 1″-2″
- Mt Bachelor – 1″
