Weather
Japan is set for two meaningful snow cycles from Tuesday through Monday, followed by a lower-confidence and generally lighter midweek pattern. The first cycle builds Tuesday afternoon and peaks Wednesday into early Thursday, then a stronger and windier round arrives Saturday into Monday with the best chance for widespread refreshes. Snow levels stay low during both main periods, so most terrain sees snow rather than rain, and temperatures remain winter-like overall. After Monday night, guidance spreads out quickly on both timing and totals, so expectations should shift from specific storm calls to a broader lower-end outlook with upside mainly in favored Hokkaido zones.
From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, individual models are converging on storm timing and on low snow levels, while intensity spread is moderate and wind projections are comparatively consistent. Many resorts should land near 30 cm by Thursday afternoon, and favored areas can push near 45 cm. Snow levels during active precipitation are generally around 0-700 meters, with occasional spikes near 1,100-1,300 meters in warmer pulses, so lower mountain mix risk looks limited and brief. Temperatures mostly run about -7 C to 1 C during snowfall windows. Snow quality should average dense-to-moderate, with SLRs mainly 9-13 and short wetter periods around 7-9. Wind impacts are manageable for most sessions, but exposed lifts can still see intermittent gusts in the 40-80 km/h range, with isolated stronger bursts.
From Saturday into Monday, models again converge on the arrival window but diverge notably on intensity, snow-level fluctuations, and peak wind strength, so confidence is high on a storm but lower on exact magnitude. Another widespread refresh near 40 cm is plausible at many resorts, and favored Hokkaido terrain has potential to approach 100 cm where stronger solutions verify. Snow levels remain mostly low, commonly 0-500 meters while snow is falling, though brief warmer surges can push to around 1,200-1,400 meters in parts of the period. Temperatures stay mostly between -10 C and 2 C in snow bands. Snow quality trends dense-to-moderate overall with SLRs mostly 7-11, then pockets of 12-16 in colder wraparound phases. Wind is the bigger operational issue, with frequent gusts 60-100 km/h and isolated exposed ridgeline gusts well above that.
After Monday night through Thursday, confidence drops quickly as models diverge on both placement and persistence of follow-up snow. Several solutions trend mostly dry or only lightly snowy with intermittent flurries, while wetter outliers keep periodic bands going, especially toward western Hokkaido. A conservative regional expectation is around 10 cm of additional snowfall at many areas, with lower-probability upside near 40 cm in the wettest northern scenarios. Snow levels are generally low when precipitation occurs, and temperatures remain cold enough for mostly wintry surfaces. If this late window produces meaningful snow, quality should improve versus the weekend storm, with more moderate-to-light texture and fewer dense intervals, while winds are usually less severe than the weekend peak but can still spike enough to affect upper mountain comfort.
Resort Forecast Totals (Tue Mar 03 Mon Mar 09)
- Kiroro – 70 cm-129 cm
- Hoshino Resort Tomamu – 77 cm-125 cm
- Zao Onsen – 60 cm-91 cm
- Hakuba Happo-one – 55 cm-90 cm
- Rusutsu – 51 cm-88 cm
- Naeba – 57 cm-87 cm
- Sapporo Teine – 48 cm-84 cm
- Niseko Grand Hirafu – 45 cm-79 cm
- Shiga Kogen Okushiga Kogen – 51 cm-78 cm
- Appi Kogen – 45 cm-77 cm
- Gala Yuzawa – 39 cm-62 cm
- Nozawa Onsen – 35 cm-54 cm
- Madarao Kogen – 29 cm-44 cm
- Akakura Onsen – 20 cm-35 cm
- Furano – 19 cm-35 cm
