Weather
A two-part pattern will keep the Ski Big 3 in fresh snow this weekend, with a warm dense start on Friday followed by colder, better-quality refreshers into Sunday night. Confidence is highest from Friday morning through Sunday night, when guidance is clustered on the timing of the weekend storm and on the best accumulations favoring Lake Louise and Banff Sunshine. After a colder lull Monday, another midweek round of snow looks likely, then the late-period outlook turns much less certain.
Friday morning through early Saturday brings the steadiest initial burst, and the individual guidance is tightly grouped on timing even though totals still spread out because snow levels rise to around 1,900 to 2,100 meters during the mildest part of the storm. That should keep the best accumulation on higher terrain, especially at Lake Louise and Banff Sunshine, while Mount Norquay is more vulnerable to mixed or very dense snow. Expect Friday snow to come in with SLRs mostly in the 6-10 range, so this is heavier, creamier snow rather than low-density powder, and ridge gusts generally in the 30-55 km/h range may keep exposed terrain less comfortable at times. As colder air works in Saturday and Sunday, snow levels crash below 1,000 meters and SLRs improve into the 12-18 range, so the storm finishes with drier, more skiable snow. By Sunday night, Lake Louise and Banff Sunshine look set for roughly 14-18 cm, while Mount Norquay is closer to 5-7 cm.
Monday looks like the break in the pattern, but it should be a cold one, and the next round of snow is already signaled for Tuesday into Thursday. The individual guidance converges fairly well on bringing snow back during that stretch, but it diverges more on intensity, on whether the steadiest snow peaks Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and on how much snow levels rebound Tuesday afternoon before dropping again. The realistic read right now is another regional 10-25 cm opportunity, with Lake Louise favored for the upper end and Mount Norquay more likely to land below that. Ratios should mostly run in the 11-18 range, so this looks more like moderate-to-light snow than the denser Friday batch, and temperatures generally stay in the -10 to -2 C range while it is snowing. Winds do not look especially damaging, but periodic ridge gusts around 30-50 km/h could still affect exposed chairs during the more active periods.
Beyond Friday, confidence fades quickly even though the colder pattern itself does not. The GFS and AIFS keep another Sunday into Monday wave over the region and would support roughly 5-20 cm of additional snow, while the ECMWF is nearly dry and the GDPS is much lighter, so this part of the forecast is still speculative. What does look more consistent is that temperatures stay wintry, with most mountain readings remaining below freezing and any new snow tending to come in as moderate to fairly light snow rather than a wet spring product. If the snowier solutions verify, Lake Louise and Banff Sunshine would again have the better shot at soft turns, but for now the cleaner call is to expect a colder, generally decent surface setup with only a conditional chance of another meaningful refresh late in the forecast.
Resort Forecast Totals (Fri Mar 20 – Sun Mar 22)
- Banff Sunshine – 14-18 cm
- Lake Louise – 14-18 cm
- Mount Norquay – 5-7 cm
