Weather
Two Sierra storms drive this forecast, starting with a Mon night (02/09) – Wed (02/11) reload and building into a colder Valentine’s Day weekend storm that may run into Tue (02/17). Sunday stays mild and dry, then temperatures trend cooler into the week while ridge winds ramp up ahead of the first wave. The midweek storm favors steady accumulations and generally denser snow early, with quality improving as colder air arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. A quieter stretch late week sets the stage for the holiday-weekend storm, where snow levels crash and snow quality improves sharply, especially Sunday night through Monday night. Confidence is high in the midweek reload, while the weekend storm has a strong signal with a wider spread on where the heaviest bands set up.
Mon night (02/09) – Wed (02/11) brings the first real reload, with snow levels starting high and then dropping fast enough to turn most of the Sierra back to snow by Tuesday night. Snow levels hover around 6,000–7,500 feet at the start, so the lowest bases near 6,200–6,600 feet can flirt with rain or mixed precipitation early, then colder air pushes snow levels down around 5,000–5,500 feet heading into Wednesday. Most Tahoe and central Sierra resorts end up with 5″–17″ of new snow, with the best totals toward higher terrain near Kirkwood and the central Sierra, while Mammoth tracks closer to 8″–13″. SLRs generally run 9–13:1 on the Tahoe crest and around Mammoth, so quality trends from dense-to-moderate early toward fair-to-good snow by Wednesday, and the central Sierra can start heavier with early ratios dipping into the 6–10:1 range. South winds increase into Tuesday with ridge gusts commonly 40–60 mph, which can make exposed lifts and ridgelines rough, and the AIFS runs lighter while the ICON and the GDPS are more aggressive, with the ECMWF and the GFS closer to the middle.
Valentine’s Day weekend into Tue (02/17) looks like the main event, delivering a colder air mass, much lower snow levels, and a higher ceiling for deep turns across the Sierra. Snow levels start closer to 5,500–6,500 feet early Saturday, then drop hard and sit around 2,000–3,000 feet for the heart of the storm Sunday night into Tuesday, so even the lowest bases stay all snow once the colder air arrives. Potential totals in the Sierra span a huge range, with central Sierra resorts showing potential in the 2-4 foot ballpark, Tahoe-area resorts more often in the 1-3 foot range, and Mammoth roughly 15″–35″ if the deeper moisture reaches the southern Sierra. Snow quality improves dramatically as the cold settles in, with SLRs climbing into the 14–19:1 range Sunday night through Monday night and temperatures dropping into the teens °F at many bases. Winds stay a factor with peak gusts 50–70 mph on the higher ridges, and model spread remains meaningful, with the AIFS and the ECMWF generally higher, the GFS often in between, and the GDPS much drier in some zones, especially farther south.
A short lull Thursday and Friday offers a breather between systems, and the broader pattern stays colder and wetter than normal into mid-to-late February, keeping more storms in play after this outlook ends. Any leftover showers Thursday are light and spotty, and most resorts should use late week for grooming and recovery before the weekend storm ramps back up. The extended outlook favors below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation across California through at least the February 15–21 window, which supports an active storm track and continued odds for additional snow after Tuesday. In Southern California, the midweek wave only brings limited moisture with snow levels hovering near 6,000–7,500 feet at times, so accumulations stay modest and snow quality stays heavy when it does snow. Mount Baldy is temporarily closed, so any snowfall there is more likely to support future operations than immediate use.
Resort Forecast Totals 02/09–02/11
- Kirkwood – 12″–17″
- Bear Valley – 10″–15″
- Palisades Tahoe – 9″–13″
- Mammoth – 8″–13″
- Sugar Bowl – 9″–13″
- Dodge Ridge – 8″–13″
- Northstar – 7″–10″
- Mt Rose – 6″–9″
- Heavenly – 5″–8″
- Diamond Peak – 5″–8″
