Weather
This forecast was created at 8:15 a.m. on Sunday, February 15, 2026.
Wind and snow return to New Mexico late Monday night, and a storm train runs Tuesday through Saturday with the best totals in the northern mountains. Snow levels drop quickly once precipitation starts, and snow quality improves as colder air filters in through the second half of the week. Expect several rounds of strong west to southwest wind, with Tuesday looking like the toughest day for exposed lifts. After this active stretch, late-February signals favor a warmer, drier tilt for New Mexico, so the odds of another meaningful powder cycle drop off after the weekend.
Sunday and Monday stay dry and mild, with high clouds and strengthening southwest ridge winds ahead of the pattern change. The models all keep New Mexico’s resorts quiet through Monday daylight, then bring a fast ramp-up in wind late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures run warm enough early in the week that surfaces can feel springy during the day, especially on sun-exposed aspects, then trend steadily colder once the midweek system arrives. By Tuesday morning, wind becomes the main headline across the higher terrain, and it sets up a classic orographic setup for the northern and central mountains once moisture and colder air arrive.
The Tuesday through Thursday storm delivers the steadiest mountain snow and the most disruptive winds of the week. Model timing is converging well, with the main onset late Monday night into Tuesday and additional bursts continuing through Thursday. Snow levels show strong agreement on a rapid drop, starting around 8,000 to 9,500 feet early Tuesday and falling quickly toward 5,500 to 6,500 feet by Tuesday afternoon, with lower levels in later pulses. Snowfall intensity carries more spread, with the GFS and the GDPS generally leaning wetter than the ECMWF and the AIFS at times, and the ICON varying more from burst to burst, so exact resort-by-resort distribution stays somewhat uncertain even though the overall event is high confidence. Snow quality starts dense on Tuesday with SLRs commonly 7-10:1, then trends toward 10-15:1 Wednesday and Thursday for more supportive, skiable powder. Winds are a high-confidence issue, with sustained ridgetop speeds frequently 40-60 mph and pockets pushing 60-70 mph at the most exposed peaks, which can affect lift operations and make upper-mountain laps feel rugged.
Friday into Saturday brings a colder reload and a final chance for meaningful accumulations before the pattern calms down. Most guidance converges on the timing of this follow-up, centered on Friday and extending into Saturday, while the models diverge on how strong it becomes and how far south the better moisture reaches. Snow levels and temperatures line up better here, staying lower overall, and snow quality improves with SLRs often 14-18:1, so this window has the best potential for lighter, fluffier turns once winds ease even a little. Taos and Red River remain the most consistent targets for the week’s deeper totals, Ski Santa Fe stays firmly in the game with a higher ceiling in the wetter solutions, and Ski Apache looks like it mostly picks up lighter accumulations paired with very strong wind exposure. After Saturday, the broader late-February pattern leans warmer and drier for New Mexico, and any additional snow signals look small with lower confidence.
Resort Forecast Totals (Tue Feb 17 – Sat Feb 21)
- Taos – 11″-18″
- Red River – 8″-14″
- Ski Santa Fe – 7″-12″
- Angel Fire – 5″-8″
- Ski Apache – 0″-1″
