Weather
Summary
Colder air dives into the Australian Alps late week, with the main dump peaking Friday night and favoring the Snowy Mountains and the Victorian High Country. Expect storm totals of roughly 45 to 75 centimeters (18″–30″) in the Snowy Mountains (Charlotte Pass, Thredbo, Perisher, Selwyn) and 66 to 70 centimeters (26″–28″) for Falls Creek and Mount Hotham, around 66 centimeters (26″) for Mount Buller, with lighter amounts for Mount Baw Baw and Tasmania’s Mount Mawson. Snow starts dense then improves to fairly good quality Friday night into Saturday as SLRs rise into the 9–11:1 range, before trending heavier again Sunday as snow levels lift.
Forecast Discussion
Tuesday night–Thursday night: warm start, building base, modest accumulations. The first wave spreads snow in from the west Tuesday night, with snow levels running high early (near 1,645 meters (5,400 feet)) then stepping down to around 1,100 to 1,250 meters (3,600–4,100 feet) by Thursday night. SLRs sit mainly 6–8:1, so expect denser snow. Most mainland resorts stack up around 25 to 48 centimeters (10″–15″) by late Thursday (Snowy Mountains and Victorian High Country), while Mount Baw Baw stays much lighter (around 5 to 7.5 centimeters / 2″–3″) and Mount Mawson picks up only a few inches. With bases at 1,365 meters (4,478 feet) (Thredbo) and 1,400 meters (4,593 feet) (Selwyn), brief mixed precip or rain at the lowest elevations is possible early Wednesday before the colder air deepens.
Friday–Friday night: the primary cold shot and the deepest totals. The coldest air arrives and snow levels crash to roughly 790 to 915 meters (2,600–3,000 feet), pushing accumulating snow well below most base areas. SLRs improve into the 9–11:1 range, and orographic enhancement lights up the range Friday night. Most resorts see another 25 to 30 centimeters (10″–12″), with standouts near 30 centimeters (12″) in the Snowy Mountains (Thredbo, Charlotte Pass, Selwyn) and in Victoria (Falls Creek, Mount Hotham). Mount Baw Baw adds about 18 centimeters (7″), and Mount Mawson tacks on around 10 centimeters (4″). Winds are strong and gusty on exposed ridges, so plan for wind holds at times.
Saturday–Sunday (into Monday where applicable): taper, then a mild bump with rising snow levels. Lingering snow showers Saturday add a few more inches with relatively dry flakes (SLRs near 10–11:1), then a modest warmup lifts snow levels to around 1,460 to 1,520 meters (4,800–5,000 feet) by Sunday. Expect only 5 to 13 centimeters (2″–5″) additional for most, with Tasmania (Mount Mawson) closer to 15 centimeters (6″). As snow levels rise Sunday, watch for mixed precip returning at the very lowest elevations (Thredbo, Selwyn, Mount Buller) while upper-mountain terrain holds onto snow.
RESORT-BY-RESORT SNOWFALL TOTALS
- Charlotte Pass – 46cm–76cm (18″–30″) Tue night (08/26) – Sun (08/31)
- Thredbo – 46cm–74cm (18″–29″) Tue night (08/26) – Sun (08/31)
- Falls Creek – 43cm–71cm (17″–28″) Tue night (08/26) – Mon (09/01)
- Perisher – 43cm–69cm (17″–27″) Tue night (08/26) – Sat night (08/30)
- Mount Hotham – 41cm–69cm (16″–27″) Tue night (08/26) – Sun night (08/31)
- Selwyn Snowfields – 41cm–66cm (16″–26″) Wed (08/27) – Sun night (08/31)
- Mount Buller – 41cm–66cm (16″–26″) Tue night (08/26) – Mon night (09/01)
- Mount Mawson – 20cm–36cm (8″–14″) Wed night (08/27) – Mon night (09/01)
- Mount Baw Baw – 18cm–30cm (7″–12″) Wed (08/27) – Sun (08/31)
