South America Snow Forecast: 2-4 Meters through Sunday

Snowfall forecast map — Credit: NOAA/NCEP GFS

This South America snow forecast points to a major midweek-to-weekend storm in the central Andes, with a wetter and more uneven sequence for Patagonia. Multiple meters of snow are likely at the highest central Chile resorts by Sunday night, while snow levels fall and snow quality improves as the storm matures. Lift-served terrain is currently restricted at many mountains, including beginner-only operations at Las Leñas and a full closure at Nevados de Chillán, so fresh coverage should help, but strong winds may limit how quickly new terrain becomes usable.

From Monday through Wednesday, the first wave favors Corralco and northern Patagonia before precipitation expands north. The models are converging on the broad timing but diverging on intensity and precipitation type near lower slopes. Early snow levels around 1,600-1,800 meters leave Corralco’s base vulnerable to rain or very wet snow, while levels near 1,400-1,700 meters produce a similar upper-mountain versus lower-mountain split at Chapelco and Cerro Catedral. Early SLRs around 3-9 mean poor, dense snow where accumulation occurs. Guidance agrees on strong wind, though peak-gust forecasts range from roughly 50-90 km/h, enough to disrupt exposed lifts.

From Wednesday night through Sunday, the central Andes become the clear focus as a long-duration storm intensifies and turns colder. The models converge on the onset and multi-day structure, but still diverge substantially on snowfall intensity. Snow levels begin near 2,200-2,800 meters, then fall toward 1,000-1,600 meters by the weekend. SLRs improve from roughly 7-12 early to 14-18 late, shifting from dense or moderate snow to lighter powder. The models also agree on significant ridge wind but diverge on magnitude, with many gust signals in the 60-100 km/h range. Confidence is highest from Monday, July 13 through Sunday night, July 19.

From Monday, July 20 through Wednesday, July 22, the forecast becomes much less settled. Some guidance reloads the central Andes quickly, while other solutions taper the storm or delay the next pulse, and the spread grows for timing, snow levels, and wind. The GFS and AIFS maintain snow more consistently in the central high Andes, while the ECMWF tapers faster and the Canadian guidance is a wet outlier near Nevados de Chillán. A conservative read allows another 50-100 cm in the central high Andes and 10-30 cm in parts of the southern Andes, but those amounts remain speculative.