Weather
A major Midwest winter storm dominates the forecast through Monday night, with the deepest resort snow falling from northern Wisconsin into northern Lower Michigan while the North Shore and Iron Range sit on the quieter side of the track. Confidence is highest from Sunday morning, March 15, through early Tuesday, March 17, when timing and wind impacts are lined up best. Expect dense-to-moderate storm snow, very strong exposed-terrain winds that could affect lifts and visibility, a sharp turn colder on Tuesday, and then a steady move toward springlike afternoons later in the week.
Sunday and Monday bring the main event, and the models are tightly converged on a long-duration storm with heavy snow, strong northeast to north winds, and the best totals centered on northern Wisconsin and northern Lower Michigan. The main spread is not storm timing but exactly where the most intense band parks and how much the snow densifies Sunday afternoon, especially at the lower Michigan and southern Wisconsin hills. Snow levels stay mostly on the deck and only briefly try to lift toward 800-1,000 feet around the lower Michigan resorts, so the ski terrain should stay mainly snow. Ratios mostly run 10-14:1 in the core bands, with some 7-10:1 periods that point to heavier, more compact snow before colder air improves quality late Monday. Around Harbor Springs, storm totals push past 20 inches, while Granite Peak and Whitecap look more like mid-teen outcomes, Mount Bohemia lands closer to 10 inches, and Lutsen Mountains and Giants Ridge are largely fringed with only about 1 inch.
Wind is almost as important as snowfall from Sunday afternoon into Monday night, and guidance is strongly clustered on a rough ski-surface picture at the more exposed hills even where totals are lower. Sustained winds frequently push into the 25-45 mph range, with higher gusts over the Keweenaw and other exposed terrain, so visibility and lift operations could be the biggest limiter during the height of the storm. Mount Bohemia looks especially windy, and the northern Lower Michigan hills should also spend a long stretch in blowing snow despite excellent accumulation. Farther south and west, Afton Alps and Cascade Mountain still do well in shorter bursts, but they are not in the same snow core. Confidence remains good that the storm winds down from west to east late Monday into early Tuesday, followed by the coldest air of the stretch on Tuesday with temperatures dropping into the single digits and locally near -5°F at the coldest resorts.
After the main storm, the forecast turns less dramatic but still useful for planning, because there is a brief follow-up snow chance Tuesday night into Wednesday before a broader warmup takes over. The models are no longer tightly clustered once the big system exits: several still develop a weak refresher for southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin, with Afton Alps and Cascade Mountain having the best chance at a light 1"-3", while others keep most northern resorts nearly dry. By Wednesday afternoon through Friday, guidance converges again on milder weather and limited precipitation, which should turn surfaces increasingly springlike as highs climb back above freezing and reach the 40s, with some 50s possible at the southern hills by Friday. Late in the weekend and early next week, a few solutions try to brush the North Shore, the Upper Peninsula, or northern Lower Michigan with light snow, but model spread on timing, placement, snow levels, and wind is large and the broader pattern still favors a lower-end, spotty setup rather than another widespread storm.
Resort Forecast Totals (Sun Mar 15 – Tue Mar 17)
- The Highlands at Harbor Springs – 22"-29"
- Nub’s Nob – 21"-27"
- Boyne Mountain – 13"-18"
- Granite Peak – 14"-17"
- Whitecap Mountain – 13"-17"
- Cascade Mountain – 10"-13"
- Mount Bohemia – 9"-11"
- Afton Alps – 9"-11"
- Lutsen Mountains – 1"
- Giants Ridge – 1"
