SnowBrains Forecast: 20-30 cm Storm Favors Southern New Zealand

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Snowfall forecast map
Credit: ECMWF

This NZ snow forecast brings a multi-wave storm from Friday through Monday, with the strongest first-storm totals near 20-30 cm around the Southern Lakes and Mackenzie Basin. Snow starts dense before colder air improves its quality, while persistent wind remains the main threat to lift operations.

Wednesday is primarily a wind day rather than a powder day. Porters, Mount Dobson, and Ohau are closed for the day, while Whakapapa has limited lower-mountain operations and upper lifts on hold or closed. Strong westerlies persist through Thursday, with exposed Canterbury summits potentially gusting above 100 kilometers per hour before the storm arrives.

Snow develops before dawn Friday across the Southern Lakes and Mackenzie Basin, then spreads into Canterbury. Several South Island bases sit close to the initial snow level of 1,400-1,500 meters, leaving the first hours vulnerable to wet or mixed precipitation low down. Snow levels fall toward 900-1,200 meters across the southern fields by Friday afternoon as temperatures drop below freezing. Early snow will be very dense before becoming somewhat drier, although strong west winds will leave exposed slopes wind-pressed. Snow showers continue intermittently into Saturday.

A second wave builds Sunday and shifts the focus toward Ohau, Canterbury, and Mount Ruapehu through Monday. Snow levels initially rise toward 1,600-2,000 meters in central and northern areas, producing dense upper-mountain snow and possible rain or mixed precipitation near lower bases before colder air arrives. The models agree better on the two-wave sequence than on exact amounts, supporting specific totals through Monday evening. Another colder system could deliver renewed accumulating snow from Wednesday into Thursday, but its placement and strength remain too variable for committed totals.

NZ Snow Forecast Resort Totals (Fri Sep 04 – Mon Sep 07)


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