Weather
South America has one useful storm cycle from Friday afternoon through early Monday, with the best accumulation focused on the Chilean Andes and Las Leñas before the pattern dries out again. Snow levels stay low enough for mostly snow at the higher Chilean resorts and Las Leñas, while Nevados de Chillán and Corralco do better later in the weekend as colder air settles in. Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego only pick up light amounts in this first round, and confidence drops quickly after Monday as the central Andes go quiet and only weak southern disturbances remain.
From Friday afternoon through Sunday night, guidance is well aligned on a prolonged but not especially cold storm for Portillo, Valle Nevado, El Colorado, La Parva, and Las Leñas. Timing confidence is solid, with snow starting quickly Friday and continuing in waves into late Sunday, while the guidance is also fairly well clustered on snow levels around 2,000 to 2,900 meters and on only moderate wind impacts. The bigger divergence is snowfall intensity, especially around Valle Nevado, El Colorado, and La Parva where the driest guidance is much leaner than the wetter camp. Higher terrain should do best and Portillo is the most vulnerable to denser snow near the lower mountain. Snow quality also varies by elevation: SLRs mostly run 10-13 at Valle Nevado and La Parva for fair to occasionally light snow, while Portillo and Las Leñas spend time in the 3-10 range for denser snow before improving later. Exposed terrain around Valle Nevado and La Parva can still see gusts near 40 to 50 km/h during the steadiest periods, and a reasonable expectation is around 25 cm at Valle Nevado with low-20s at El Colorado, La Parva, and Las Leñas.
The weekend’s snowiest period shifts south Saturday night through early Monday, March 23, when Nevados de Chillán and Corralco move into the strongest part of the cycle. Here the guidance converges on timing and on a colder snow-level profile much better than on intensity, with most solutions keeping snow levels near 1,100 to 2,000 meters while the Sunday pulse comes through. Totals still vary from moderate to fairly healthy because some runs deepen that pulse much more than others, but the signal for a windy period is consistent and exposed terrain can see gusts often 60 to 70 km/h. Both areas can see some dense snow or mixed precipitation near base elevation early, then better all-snow coverage higher up as the storm matures. SLRs in the 6-11 range point to dense to moderate snow rather than blower powder. A conservative read centers totals near 40 cm at Nevados de Chillán and around 30 cm at Corralco by the time the storm winds down, while Chapelco and Cerro Catedral look limited to only a few centimeters because model agreement drops off quickly that far south.
Confidence is highest from Friday afternoon, March 20, through early Monday, March 23, and it falls off quickly after that. After the first storm exits, the central Chilean Andes and Las Leñas turn dry in essentially every longer-range solution, so conditions there should shift toward calmer and more settled weather rather than additional snow. The only lingering signal is in the far south and parts of Patagonia from Tuesday into Wednesday, where guidance diverges even on storm existence, snowfall timing, and wind impacts: some solutions produce a weak round of dense snow with SLRs near 5-9 and gusts around 70 to 90 km/h at Cerro Castor and maybe Cerro Catedral, while others keep amounts minimal. The most realistic outcome there is a minor refresher rather than a major reset, with under 10 cm favored if anything materializes and otherwise long dry stretches dominating the back half of the period.
Resort Forecast Totals (Fri Mar 20 – Mon Mar 23)
- Nevados de Chillán – 34 cm-46 cm
- Corralco – 26 cm-36 cm
- Valle Nevado – 23 cm-30 cm
- Las Leñas – 20 cm-27 cm
- El Colorado – 20 cm-26 cm
- La Parva – 19 cm-24 cm
- Portillo – 13 cm-17 cm
- Chapelco – 3 cm-5 cm
- Cerro Castor – 2 cm-3 cm
- Cerro Catedral – 2 cm-3 cm
