Weather
This forecast was created at 8 p.m. PST on November 15, 2025.
Two successive weekend storms will bring a healthy round of early season snow to the central and northern Sierra from Saturday night through Tuesday, with the biggest totals focused on Bear Valley, Mammoth, Kirkwood, and Dodge Ridge. Over the period, upper-mountain snowfall at these standouts is expected to end up in the neighborhood of 14″–20″, while Sugar Bowl and Palisades Tahoe finish closer to 11″–16″ and the rest of the Tahoe Basin generally sees around 5″–9″. Snow starts out warm and dense with high snow levels Saturday night and Sunday, then becomes colder and drier with the second storm as snow levels fall toward 5,000 to 6,000 feet by Monday morning. Winds will be breezy at times with ridge gusts commonly in the 35 to 45 mph range and localized peaks above 50 mph, but not exceptionally strong for November. A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern is favored to persist into the run up to Thanksgiving, with additional chances for snow but no clear signal yet for either a long dry stretch or a parade of major storms.
Saturday night into Sunday brings the first in a pair of early-season systems, starting warm with high snow levels and heavy, dense snow for the higher Sierra resorts. Moisture lifts in from the south on Saturday evening, with snow levels initially near 7,000 to 8,000 feet or higher, so accumulations first favor upper mountain terrain, while many base areas see rain or a mix of rain and snow. Through Saturday night and Sunday, the higher elevations of Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge, Sugar Bowl, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, and Mammoth can pick up on the order of 4″–7″ from this first wave, while the Tahoe east-side resorts such as Heavenly, Northstar, Diamond Peak, and Mt Rose see more modest amounts around 2″–4″. Snow-to-liquid ratios during this phase mostly fall in the 7 to 10:1 range across the Tahoe and central Sierra, so expect a wetter, denser snow that is excellent for anchoring an early base rather than classic blower powder. Southwest ridge winds increase into the mid-teens to mid-20s mph with gusts generally 30 to 40 mph, strong enough to drift snow along exposed ridgelines but not extreme for November.
Late Sunday night through Monday delivers a colder, more productive storm that drops snow levels toward many base areas and produces the bulk of this event’s snowfall. As this second wave digs in from the north, snow levels are expected to settle in the 6,000 to 7,000 feet range Sunday night and then fall toward roughly 5,000 to 6,000 feet by Monday morning, bringing accumulating snow to lower and mid-mountain terrain. During this window, central Sierra resorts such as Bear Valley and Dodge Ridge are favored for another roughly 9″–13″ on their upper slopes, while Sugar Bowl and Palisades Tahoe add on the order of 7″–11″, and the rest of the Tahoe Basin generally tacks on around 4″–7″. Farther south, Mammoth and the eastern Sierra benefit from favorable southwest flow into the higher peaks, with Sunday night through Monday night adding about 9″–13″ of new snow at upper elevations there. Snow-to-liquid ratios improve into the 10 to 13:1 range across most resorts and climb into the mid-teens near Mammoth late Monday, so snow becomes noticeably lighter and drier even as summit temperatures drop into the upper teens and 20s.
By Tuesday, the region transitions into a cooler, showery pattern with only light additional accumulations while winds and temperatures gradually ease. Residual moisture supports some lingering snow showers into Tuesday, but model guidance and the resort-level forecast data both point toward only a dusting to perhaps around 1″–2″ of extra snow at most Tahoe and central Sierra resorts from Monday night through Tuesday. Snow levels during this trailing phase sit roughly between 4,600 and 6,500 feet, depending on location, so any remaining precipitation falls as snow across nearly all lift-served terrain. Snow-to-liquid ratios stay in the 11 to 14:1 range in this cooler air mass, keeping surface conditions chalky where fresh flakes accumulate on top of the earlier, denser base. Ridge winds ease compared to Sunday and Monday’s peak values, trending more northerly or northeasterly by late Tuesday, which will help stabilize the new snow and reduce blowing and drifting on exposed ridges.
Looking beyond Tuesday, the broader pattern favors a generally cool, somewhat unsettled stretch into the middle and latter part of November rather than a clean flip to either full sunshine or a nonstop storm cycle. Guidance for the period around November 21 to 25 suggests near-seasonal temperatures for northern California and western Nevada, with precipitation expected to be near normal to slightly above normal on the eastern side of the range. Additional light to moderate systems are possible but not guaranteed. As the calendar moves into the November 23-29 window, a gradual shift toward a cooler regime across the interior West is indicated, with below-normal temperatures becoming more likely for the Sierra and western Nevada, while precipitation along the immediate West Coast trends closer to near or slightly below normal overall. For resorts, that translates to a decent chance of more minor to potentially moderate snow events, favoring the higher terrain and interior ranges, but without a strong signal yet for a major, long-duration dump. All of the resorts in this forecast remain closed for now, so this pattern will mainly act as a base builder ahead of planned openings at Heavenly, Sugar Bowl, and Northstar around November 21, Palisades Tahoe later in the month, Dodge Ridge on November 28, and Kirkwood and Diamond Peak in early December.
Resort Forecast Totals
- Bear Valley – 15″–20″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue (11/18)
- Mammoth – 15″–20″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue night (11/18)
- Kirkwood – 14″–19″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue night (11/18)
- Dodge Ridge – 14″–18″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue (11/18)
- Sugar Bowl – 12″–16″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue (11/18)
- Palisades Tahoe – 11″–15″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue (11/18)
- Mt Rose – 7″–9″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue night (11/18)
- Northstar – 7″–9″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue (11/18)
- Diamond Peak – 6″–8″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue (11/18)
- Heavenly – 5″–7″ Sat night (11/15) – Tue (11/18)
