Weather
A robust and active pattern kicks off with a series of storms delivering heavy precipitation and fluctuating snow levels to the Pacific Northwest. A warm front Thursday transitions into a colder system by Friday night, offering a window of quality snowfall on Saturday before a potent atmospheric river threatens to scour the mountains with heavy rain and high-elevation snow early next week.
A warm front is currently pushing into the region, bringing an initial round of precipitation that will transition into a stronger, colder system by Friday night. Thursday sees high snow levels, hovering around 6,000–8,000 feet in Oregon and 3,500–5,000 feet in Washington, meaning precipitation will likely start as rain or heavy, wet snow at most base areas. Winds will be a significant factor, particularly at higher elevations like Timberline and Bachelor, where gusts could scream upwards of 70–80 mph, likely impacting lift operations. By Friday night, a cold front sweeps through, dropping snow levels to a more skier-friendly 3,000–4,000 feet. This Friday night through Saturday window offers the best quality turns of the forecast period, especially for Stevens Pass (opening Friday) and Whistler. Expect SLRs to improve into the 8–10:1 range during this time, providing a denser but supportable layer of fresh snow compared to the cement falling earlier in the week.
Sunday brings a second wave of moisture, though snow levels will begin to creep upward again ahead of a significant atmospheric river event early next week. While Sunday will still deliver decent accumulation, snow density will increase as SLRs dip back toward the 6–8:1 range. By Monday and Tuesday, a potent atmospheric river takes aim at the Pacific Northwest. This system is carrying a massive amount of moisture, with forecast models showing high Integrated Vapor Transport values. Unfortunately for skiers, this comes with a surge of warm air, driving snow levels up to 6,000–7,000 feet or higher. Consequently, heavy rain is possible at base elevations on Monday, with snow becoming wet and heavy even at the summits (SLRs crashing to 4–6:1). While precipitation totals will be impressive, the snow quality will be challenging.
Looking ahead, the active pattern shows no signs of stopping, though temperatures remain a concern. The 6–10 day outlook favors above-average temperatures and continued above-average precipitation for Washington and Oregon. A high-pressure ridge is expected to build over the West, but the storm track remains open, directing Pacific moisture into the region. This suggests that while fresh snow will continue to fall, we will likely deal with fluctuating snow levels and “cascade concrete” conditions rather than light, fluffy powder through the middle of next week.
Resort Forecast Totals
- Mt Baker – 30”–45” Thu (12/4)–Tue (12/9)
- Stevens Pass – 25”–37” Thu (12/4)–Tue (12/9)
- Crystal Mountain – 18”–27” total (3”–4” Thu (12/4)–Thu Night (12/4) + 14”–23” Fri Night (12/5)–Tue (12/9))
- Whistler – 16”–26” Thu Night (12/4)–Tue (12/9)
- Timberline – 11”–17” total (10”–15” Fri (12/5)–Mon (12/8) + 1”–2” Mon Night (12/8)–Tue (12/9))
- Mt Bachelor – 5”–7” total (1”–2” Thu (12/4)–Thu Night (12/4) + 4”–6” Fri (12/5)–Mon (12/8))
