South America Snow Forecast: 3-6 Meters through Thursday

Snowfall forecast map — Credit: NOAA/NCEP GFS

This South America snow forecast features an ongoing central-Andes storm cycle capable of roughly 3-6 meters through Thursday morning. Snow is already underway across much of the Andes, with the heaviest accumulations favoring Chile’s high central resorts and Portillo, while Las Leñas and Nevados de Chillán also collect major totals. Winds and deep loading will keep operations volatile, and several resorts are already closed or limited. Additional snow remains possible late next week, but its timing and strength are considerably less certain.

The ongoing storm expands rapidly Thursday, crests across the central Andes from Thursday night through the weekend, and reloads with colder snow Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is highest from Wednesday afternoon, July 15, through Thursday morning, July 23. The individual models converge on the two-wave timing, exceptional central-Andes intensity, and a drop in snow levels from roughly 1,400-2,000 meters in the first wave to 800-1,600 meters in the reload. They also agree that exposed terrain will be windy, but diverge on the strongest gusts, exact peak intensity, and the duration of any break between waves.

The deepest mountain totals through Thursday morning cluster at Valle Nevado, El Colorado, La Parva, and Portillo. At the high central resorts, 10-13:1 snow-to-liquid ratios during the first wave improve above 13:1 in the colder reload, supporting increasingly light snow. Farther south, Nevados de Chillán and Corralco carry mostly 7-11:1 ratios, favoring denser snow and a wetter feel near the lowest slopes early in the cycle. Portillo is closed to day skiers until further notice, Corralco reports a temporary closure, and ski slopes at Nevados de Chillán remain suspended. Elsewhere, lift-served terrain is mostly partial, with storm-related holds likely on exposed lifts.

Beyond Thursday morning, favored central-Andes terrain could receive another 20-80 cm through Saturday, with isolated higher outcomes. The individual models diverge on whether a distinct late-week wave forms, its onset by more than a day, and whether intensity is modest or substantial. They also spread on central-Andes snow levels from roughly 1,600-2,300 meters and on whether winds become operationally significant again. Cerro Castor and the northern Patagonia resorts generally have much smaller late-week signals. Treat this period as a secondary opportunity rather than a firm snowfall commitment.