Weather
This forecast is brought to you by Dodge Ridge.
A major Sierra storm arrives late Sunday and keeps snow falling through Thursday, starting dense and windy and turning colder and fluffier midweek, bringing up to 100″ at Dodge Ridge. Expect a steady ramp Sunday night, a long stretch of heavy snowfall Monday through Wednesday, and a gradual taper Thursday, with the best-quality snow showing up once snow levels crash and temperatures settle into the teens. Ridge winds look strong enough at times for lift impacts, especially Tuesday, and snowfall totals should end up in the several-feet range by the time this one wraps. Confidence is high on the storm and the midweek cold push. Forecast certainty decreases for any follow-up waves late Friday into early next week.
Saturday stays dry at Dodge Ridge, then snowfall starts Sunday evening and intensifies overnight into Monday. The ECMWF, GFS, ICON, and GDPS cluster around that Sunday-evening arrival, and AIFS follows the same approach, so start-time confidence is solid. Snow levels begin on the high side for the Sierra, generally around 4,500 to 6,000 feet. With the base at 6,600 feet, the resort stays mostly snow, with a wetter and heavier character near the lower mountain when snow levels surge. SLRs through Monday should mostly sit near 9-11:1, so expect dense, cohesive snow early. Winds ramp with the storm, and the wind signal is consistent across the models, with ridge gusts in the 45-65 mph range a realistic issue by Monday.
Monday night through Wednesday looks like the core of the storm, and the models converge on heavy snowfall plus a meaningful drop in snow levels at Dodge Ridge. Snowfall rates peak Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and the wind signal peaks around the same time, with sustained southwest winds often in the 25-40 mph range and higher gusts that can reach the 50-70 mph range. Snow levels trend down toward 3,000-4,000 feet on Tuesday, then into the 2,000-3,000 feet range by Wednesday, with some spread on the exact timing of the colder push. That colder phase matters for turns. SLRs climb into the 14-18:1 range midweek, and temperatures settle into the teens, so the snow takes on a lighter, more powdery feel after the dense start. Dodge Ridge is open, and Wednesday into Thursday currently appears to be the best window for lighter-quality laps between stronger wind pulses.
Snow continues into Thursday, with intensity gradually easing, and confidence drops quickly for the pattern beyond the main storm. Most guidance keeps accumulating through Thursday. The models diverge on how quickly the last wraparound snow showers end and how cleanly the atmosphere resets for Friday. The larger-scale setup remains favorable for more cold and wet systems through next week, so additional snow chances remain on the table for Northern California. Timing, intensity, and snow levels on any follow-up systems look less settled, so expect more updates if you are lining up a chase after Thursday.
Dodge Ridge Forecast Totals (Sunday, February 15 – Thursday, February 19)
- Dodge Ridge – 64″-103″
