Weather
A strong midweek storm brings widespread alpine snowfall through Saturday, followed by a quieter stretch and a lower-confidence late-week reload attempt. The Wednesday night through Friday system has the best agreement across the models, and it should deliver a broad 25 cm-60 cm for many resorts, with the highest French terrain capable of 60 cm-90 cm in the wetter solutions. Snow levels fall quickly on Thursday and favor snow at most mid-mountain bases, and SLRs generally run in the 12-16:1 range, so snow quality trends moderate to fairly fluffy during the core of the storm. After Saturday, snowfall looks limited for a few days, then another late-week storm window ranges from a modest refresher to a more meaningful 20 cm-50 cm, depending on which model verifies.
Wednesday night through Friday delivers the main alpine storm, with the most consistent snowfall aimed from the Northern French Alps into western Austria. Timing is in solid agreement across the models, with snow ramping up overnight Wednesday, peaking on Thursday, and gradually easing on Friday. Intensity spreads exist, with the ECMWF and the ICON running wetter and the AIFS and the GDPS a bit less aggressive, but the overall setup still points to widespread accumulations. Many resorts land in a healthy 25 cm-60 cm zone, with the highest French resorts able to reach 60 cm-90 cm, and the snowiest pockets of western Austria pushing closer to 40 cm-70 cm when the wetter guidance wins out. Snow levels start relatively high Wednesday afternoon and then drop sharply on Thursday into the 700-1,200 meters range in the colder solutions, keeping snow quality solid with SLRs generally 12-16:1. Winds stay mostly manageable, though a few solutions bring exposed ridge gusts into the 40-55 km/h range during the strongest bursts, and Zermatt and Cervinia look lighter than most on this pass in several models.
Friday night into Saturday shifts into a lighter, more intermittent wraparound phase, and model agreement drops on how long the showers linger. The ECMWF and the GDPS keep scattered snowfall going longer in parts of Austria and the Dolomites, while the GFS and the ICON dry the region out faster, and the AIFS sits between those camps. This period looks minor compared to Thursday, generally an extra 5 cm-15 cm for the handful of resorts that stay under the best bands, with many areas turning mostly dry as Saturday progresses. Snow levels rebound as the storm departs, so bases below about 1,000 meters, including Kitzbühel and Wengen, have a greater risk of wetter snow at the bottom while upper mountain terrain stays in better shape. Snow ratios also trend down, with SLRs more often near 10-13:1, so any late snow will feel denser and more right-side-up. Winds ease overall once the final showers fade.
Sunday through Wednesday favors a quieter break with only isolated light refreshers; attention then turns to a late-week storm window with much lower confidence. Most guidance keeps snowfall limited early next week, and any new snow looks spotty and light rather than a true organized system. Late in the forecast window, the ECMWF and the GDPS rebuild more widespread precipitation across the Alps, while the GFS and the AIFS are much more restrained, and the ICON does not reach into that period. That model split leaves a wide range of outcomes, from a minor top-up to a more meaningful 20 cm-50 cm across parts of the range. Snow levels and snow quality also span a wide spectrum late week, with some guidance favoring colder, lighter snow and other solutions favoring denser snow and higher snow lines. Treat that late-week signal as an evolving opportunity rather than a locked-in forecast.
Resort Forecast Totals (Wed-Sat, Feb 18-21)
– Val Thorens – 57 cm-76 cm
– Ischgl – 41 cm-57 cm
– Chamonix – 42 cm-56 cm
– Courchevel – 41 cm-55 cm
– Tignes – 36 cm-48 cm
– Samnaun – 33 cm-45 cm
– Val d’Isère – 33 cm-44 cm
– Sölden – 31 cm-43 cm
– Verbier – 28 cm-38 cm
– Wengen (Jungfrau) – 27 cm-38 cm
– St. Anton – 27 cm-38 cm
– Cortina d’Ampezzo – 27 cm-37 cm
– Kitzbühel – 25 cm-35 cm
– St. Moritz – 23 cm-31 cm
– Cervinia – 11 cm-14 cm
– Zermatt – 9 cm-12 cm
