Weather
Summary
A warm, windy northwest pulse Saturday night through Sunday delivers dense, low-ratio snow to the Southern Lakes while Canterbury fights high snow levels and severe winds. Best bets are the Southern Lakes: Treble Cone leads with 7″-11″, Cardrona follows with 6″-9″, and both Coronet Peak and the Remarkables land 5″-8″ by Sunday night. Canterbury resorts manage 1″-3″ at best, with rain or mix near many bases during the peak of the event. This is not blower; expect heavy, creamy snow with wind impacts.
Forecast Discussion
Saturday night starts the event with the most precipitation and the worst winds. A moist northwest flow targets the Southern Lakes with the bulk of the overnight totals: roughly 5″-8″ at Treble Cone, 4″-6″ at Cardrona and Coronet Peak, 3″-5″ at the Remarkables, and 3″-5″ at Ōhau. Canterbury underperforms with a coating to 1″ at Porters and Mt Hutt and around 1″ at Mount Dobson. Snow levels sit near 4,000–4,400 feet in the Southern Lakes but 5,400–5,600 feet in Canterbury, so expect rain or a mix at lower bases like Coronet Peak and most Canterbury areas while snow reaches base more consistently at the higher Southern Lakes bases (for example, the Remarkables at 4,839 feet). Winds are the headline in Canterbury, where north to northwest gales run 60 to 70 mph with gusts 125 to 140 mph, making lift holds likely; the Southern Lakes see breezy conditions, 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Snow continues on Sunday with lighter intensity while snow levels stay elevated. Most hills add 1″-3″ during the day as the flow remains northwest. Snow lines hover near 4,200–4,400 feet in the Southern Lakes and near 5,300–5,500 feet in Canterbury, so lower elevations in Canterbury still see mixed precipitation while upper elevations accumulate. Winds ease some: teens to around 20 mph in the Southern Lakes, still a stiff 30 to 50 mph in Canterbury, so upper-mountain terrain remains the safer bet for both snow quality and operations.
By Sunday night the event tapers to flurries with minimal additional accumulation as freezing levels nudge down. Snow levels slip toward 4,400–4,800 feet after the best moisture exits, so improvement at the very lowest elevations comes late. Snow-to-liquid ratios run mostly 3:1 to 8:1 through the period, which falls in the poor-quality bucket, and temperatures hold roughly 30–40 degrees; expect dense, surfy turns where wind hasn’t hammered the surface. Chase the highest terrain and wind-sheltered aspects in the Southern Lakes for the best results.
Resort-by-Resort Snowfall Totals
- Treble Cone – 7″-11″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
- Cardrona – 6″-9″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
- Coronet Peak – 5″-8″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
- Remarkables – 5″-8″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
- Ohau – 5″-7″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
- Porters – 2″-3″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
- Mount Dobson – 2″-3″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
- Mt Hutt – 1″-2″ Sat night (09/20) – Sun night (09/21)
