Weather
California is in for a prolonged, increasingly wintry stretch, with the biggest mountain snow piling up from late Tuesday through Christmas and then continuing in waves into next weekend. Early in the period, snow levels run high and snow quality is generally poor to fair, but a midweek cooldown drops snow levels into the mid-mountain zone and boosts SLRs for much better powder potential, especially at higher Sierra and Eastern Sierra resorts where totals can reach 56″–100″ (Kirkwood) and 44″–81″ (Mammoth) by Sat night (12/27).
Note: take all these totals with a grain of salt. This forecast window is still fairly far out; numbers can and will change in the meantime. Stay tuned for updated SnowBrains forecasts as the storm draws nearer.
Through the weekend into Monday, the pattern is wet and windy with snow levels mostly too high for consistent top-to-bottom quality at many Tahoe and Central Sierra bases. Expect a breezy start, then a more organized push Sunday into Monday with snow levels generally around 8,000–9,000 feet in the Tahoe region, keeping lower elevations prone to denser snow or mixed precipitation while higher terrain accumulates. Any snow that does accumulate during this window will be extremely dense. For open resorts, this window is more about building coverage up high than chasing fluff, and strong ridge-top winds can create rough conditions on exposed lifts and upper mountain terrain at times.
Late Tuesday through Christmas brings the main shift, as cooler air arrives and snow levels drop sharply, turning the midweek storms into the best window for accumulating, higher-quality mountain snow. Snow levels trend down into the 5,000–7,000 feet range by Christmas in the Tahoe and northern Sierra zones, with a similar cooling signal in the Eastern Sierra. As temperatures fall, SLRs climb into the 10–17:1 range in the Eastern Sierra and into the low teens at times around Tahoe, so snow quality improves from fair to quite good during the heart of this midweek stretch. This is the period that can deliver the most productive, ski-focused snowfall rates and the most meaningful refresh for open resorts, while temporarily closed and closed areas should see substantial base-building potential as the colder storm cycle settles in.
After Christmas and into next weekend, the active pattern stays in place, favoring additional rounds of precipitation with continued opportunities for new snow in the mountains. The broader signal supports above-normal precipitation across California into the 6–10 and 8–14 day windows, with temperatures leaning mild overall but closer to seasonable near the immediate West Coast. For the Sierra, that combination often means more storms and more chances for mountain snowfall, though snow quality will remain sensitive to snow-level swings between systems. In Southern California, the midweek atmospheric river delivers mainly rain at lower elevations, but Mount Baldy still has a window for accumulating snow at and above higher terrain as snow levels lower later in the week.
Resort Forecast Totals
- Kirkwood – 56″–100″ Fri night (12/19) – Sat night (12/27)
- Mammoth – 44″–81″ total (8″–11″ Sat night (12/20) – Tue (12/23) + 36″–70″ Tue night (12/23) – Sat night (12/27))
- Bear Valley – 43″–81″ Sun (12/21) – Sat night (12/27)
- Sugar Bowl – 40″–72″ Sun (12/21) – Sat night (12/27)
- Palisades Tahoe – 38″–69″ Sun (12/21) – Sat night (12/27)
- Dodge Ridge – 31″–62″ Tue night (12/23) – Sat night (12/27)
- Mt Rose – 26″–47″ total (10″–14″ Sat night (12/20) – Tue night (12/23) + 16″–33″ Tue night (12/23) – Sat night (12/27))
- Northstar – 24″–45″ total (4″–6″ Sun (12/21) – Sun night (12/21) + 20″–39″ Tue night (12/23) – Sat night (12/27))
- Heavenly – 21″–40″ total (5″–8″ Sun night (12/21) – Tue (12/23) + 16″–32″ Tue night (12/23) – Sat night (12/27))
- Diamond Peak – 16″–33″ Tue night (12/23) – Sat night (12/27)
- Mount Baldy – 7″–14″ Wed night (12/24) – Sat night (12/27)
