SnowBrains Forecast: First Snow of the Season for New Zealand – Up to 20 Inches Expected

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Credit: WeatherBell

Early season southerlies will bury New Zealand’s central-eastern Southern Alps in the first meaningful dump of 2025, while a weaker, wetter pulse brushes the North Island—excellent news for base-building but with quality that trends from dense to drier as temperatures fall then rebound. A compact low sliding up the South Island Wednesday night ignites a one-to-two-foot event for Canterbury fields, with snow levels initially near 2,300 feet before rebounding toward 4,500 feet by Friday. Further south, Queenstown and Wānaka areas catch lighter but still useful totals in colder air. By Thursday night the low peels east and weak moisture drifts onto Ruapehu, where high snow lines and stout southwest winds limit accumulations to a few inches of heavy, base-cementing snow.

Wednesday night brings the main punch to Porters and Mt. Hutt as a deep southeasterly flow rams moist Pacific air straight into the Canterbury divide. Snowfall rates peak before dawn, stacking up 6″–10″ in eight hours under gusts topping 70 mph. Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) hover in the 7–8:1 range—dense, wind-packed, and perfect for anchoring early-season terrain. Cardrona, Treble Cone, and Ohau sit farther from the moisture plume and pick up a modest 1″–5″ of slightly drier 10–11:1 snow during the same window.

Through Thursday the low crawls north and temperatures stay cold enough for all-snow across the Southern Alps, with quality steadily improving as winds ease. Porters and Mt Hutt tack on another 4″–6″ of 8–10:1 snow, while Mount Dobson and Ohau nudge totals into the 6″–12″ range. Snow levels remain 2,500–3,600 feet—comfortably below the bases—so precipitation stays frozen top-to-bottom. By late Thursday night the last filament of moisture clips Canterbury; totals there plateau, and attention shifts to a warming trend on Friday.

Friday’s tail end is warmer and drier, so any lingering showers fall as a rain-snow mix near 4,200-4,500 feet, which will be most impactful at Porters’ base but largely inconsequential given scant remaining precipitation. Upper‐mountain temperatures still flirt with freezing, so whatever snowflakes survive will bond well with the dense layer laid down earlier in the week.

Farther north, Ruapehu sees a compact southwest pulse Thursday night through Friday night that drops 2″–4″ of pasty 6–7:1 snow above 5,500 feet while blasting the peaks with 70 mph gusts. Bases at Turoa and Whakapapa sit just below the snow line, so expect initial rain or a sloppy mix before snow ratios improve marginally with nocturnal cooling. Accumulations will matter more for base consolidation than for immediate turns.

Resort-by-Resort Snowfall Totals

  • Mt Hutt15″–19″ Wed Night (04/30)–Fri Night (05/02)
  • Porters12″–16″ Wed Night (04/30)–Fri Night (05/02)
  • Mount Dobson10″–12″ Wed Night (04/30)–Fri (05/02)
  • Ohau6″–8″ Wed Night (04/30)–Thu Night (05/01)
  • Turoa3″–4″ Thu Night (05/01)–Fri Night (05/02)
  • Treble Cone2″–3″ Wed Night (04/30)–Thu Night (05/01)
  • Cardrona1″–2″ Wed Night (04/30)–Thu Night (05/01)
  • Whakapapa2″–2″ Thu Night (05/01)–Fri Night (05/02)

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