Weather
Japan’s best ski weather in this update is centered on Hokkaido, where a colder Friday-Saturday storm cycle should deliver 20-50 cm by Sunday morning, while amounts fall off quickly to the south. Confidence is highest from Thursday, March 19, through Sunday morning, March 22, when the guidance is most aligned on timing and colder snow levels. North Honshu should still see a worthwhile refresh, but central Honshu is much more marginal and elevation-dependent, with lighter totals and some resorts barely cashing in before the pattern turns quieter and more uncertain next week.
The Thursday night through Saturday night period is the clear core of this forecast, with favored Hokkaido terrain lining up for 30-50 cm, Appi closer to 13-20 cm, and most central Honshu resorts in only the 0-10 cm range. The models are converging well on the timing of the main burst and agree that snow levels in Hokkaido stay near sea level through the event, so nearly all precipitation falls as snow there. Snow quality should improve as the storm matures, starting with denser 6-10 SLR snow and trending to a more comfortable 10-15 range by Friday night and Saturday as colder air settles in. North Honshu looks snowier than points farther south, but it is also the windiest piece of the map, with exposed terrain periodically dealing with 60-100 km/h gusts in the stronger solutions. Central Honshu sits on the southern edge of the moisture plume, where precipitation is spottier, snow levels often start around 600-1,500 meters, and only the highest terrain consistently stays cold enough for meaningful accumulation before the moisture pulls away.
By Sunday, March 22, the main storm is winding down, and anything from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday looks more like a follow-up opportunity of 5-15 cm in favored northern areas than a true second cycle. This is where the models begin to diverge on timing and coverage: some keep light snow going in Hokkaido and around Appi into Monday, while others break the precipitation apart much faster. The shared signal is for winds to ease from the weekend peak, with the best snow preservation still in Hokkaido where colder temperatures linger and surfaces should hold up best. Snow levels stay low enough for snow in the north if showers materialize, but farther south they rebound enough that lower mountains are more vulnerable to mixed or wetter surfaces. Central Honshu remains the least convincing zone, with most guidance showing only isolated showers and Hakuba still looking largely left out.
Late Wednesday through Friday trends mostly dry in most guidance, although one outlier still tries to squeeze out a weak late-period snowfall of 5-10 cm into parts of central Honshu. Confidence is much lower by then because the models are diverging on timing, intensity, snow levels, and even whether that precipitation exists at all. The more likely outcome is a quieter stretch with lighter winds than the weekend and gradually milder daytime temperatures, which should keep Hokkaido in the best shape while southern and lower-elevation terrain trends more springlike. If that late signal survives in later updates, it would most likely be a small, denser refresh rather than a meaningful storm cycle.
Resort Forecast Totals (Thu Mar 19 – Sun Mar 22)
- Kiroro – 38-57 cm
- Hoshino Resort Tomamu – 28-43 cm
- Niseko Grand Hirafu – 27-40 cm
- Rusutsu – 21-32 cm
- Sapporo Teine – 19-28 cm
- Furano – 15-23 cm
- Appi Kogen – 13-20 cm
- Shiga Kogen Okushiga Kogen – 7-10 cm
- Naeba – 6-8 cm
- Gala Yuzawa – 4-7 cm
- Zao Onsen – 4-5 cm
- Nozawa Onsen – 3-5 cm
- Akakura Onsen – 3-4 cm
- Madarao Kogen – 1-2 cm
- Hakuba Happo-one – 0 cm
