SnowBrains Forecast: Light High-Elevation Snow for South America Through Tuesday

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ECMWF snowfall forecast map
Credit: WeatherBell

A modest ongoing Sunday night into Monday storm will freshen the highest terrain in the central Andes first, then a more unsettled and windier pattern gradually expands south later in the week. The cleanest call is through Tuesday morning, April 21, when upper-mountain snow continues at Las Leñas and the Santiago-area resorts but snow levels stay high and totals stay limited. After a quieter midweek break, the southern Andes look more persistently active from Friday through Sunday, April 24-26, while central Chile and Las Leñas have a lower-confidence chance to reload late next weekend into early next week.

The ongoing Sunday night into Monday storm across the central Andes keeps producing mainly upper-mountain snow through Monday before tapering out by Tuesday morning, April 21. Timing is the part with the best agreement, and confidence is best from Sunday night through Tuesday morning, but the guidance still spreads on intensity, especially around Las Leñas and the Santiago-area resorts. A realistic near-term outcome is about 16-20 cm at Las Leñas, 9-11 cm at Valle Nevado, and lighter 5-8 cm amounts around El Colorado, La Parva, and Portillo. Snow levels stay high, mostly around 2,400-3,000 meters in central Chile and closer to 1,700-2,600 meters at Las Leñas, so this is mostly dense to fair snow with SLRs near 6-10, improving toward 10-14 late at Las Leñas as colder air filters in. Wind impacts look manageable in the near term, mostly 15-35 km/h with only occasional higher gusts, and for the Santiago-area resorts that are still closed this is more about preseason coverage than current operations.

After that wave exits, much of the range settles down for a couple of drier days before activity starts rebuilding from the southern Andes later in the week. From Friday through Sunday, April 24-26, the guidance converges on a colder, more persistent pattern for Cerro Castor, Chapelco, Cerro Catedral, and Corralco, though it still diverges on exactly how hard each pulse hits and how windy it gets. The conservative read is for roughly 15-40 cm spread over several rounds in the southern Andes, with the best odds for the upper end near Corralco and the lower end farther north if drier solutions win out. Snow levels in that stretch are much friendlier than the central Andes, often near sea level in far southern terrain and generally around 1,000-1,800 meters farther north, while gusts pushing 50-80 km/h look more likely to affect the ski day than extreme warmth.

Late next weekend into early next week is where the forecast becomes much more conditional for the central Andes. The guidance agrees another trough tries to reload the Santiago-area resorts and Las Leñas, but intensity is all over the map, from a modest refresher to a much more meaningful cycle, so this part of the forecast should still be treated as speculative. The conservative picture is for a broad 20-50 cm potential at upper elevations from Monday through Wednesday, April 27-29, with lower totals if the drier camp wins and more if the wetter solutions verify. Snow levels during that stretch still look elevated, generally around 1,900-2,900 meters, and snow quality ranges from dense to moderate with SLRs mostly 5-12 rather than true blower snow. Wind is part of the signal as well, but the timing and strength are less consistent here than in the southern Andes.

Resort Forecast Totals (Sun Apr 19 – Tue Apr 21)

  • Las Leñas16-20 cm
  • Valle Nevado9-11 cm
  • El Colorado6-8 cm
  • La Parva5-7 cm
  • Portillo5-6 cm
  • Nevados de Chillán2 cm
  • Cerro Castor0 cm
  • Chapelco0 cm
  • Cerro Catedral0 cm
  • Corralco0 cm

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