Weather
California resorts turn active again starting Sun night (02/15), and this weeklong cycle can deliver 1.5 to 8 feet of snow by Sat (02/21). Snow levels start relatively high early in the cycle, then plunge into a much colder setup by Tuesday and Wednesday, so snow quality improves as the week goes on. The windiest stretch lines up around Monday night and Tuesday with strong southwest flow on exposed ridges, which can make upper mountain skiing feel rugged even when it’s snowing hard. Southern California gets a solid storm too, though higher snow levels keep the snow denser at times.
Sun night (02/15) through Tue night (02/17) is the core punch, and many Sierra mountains can stack 20″–50″ in that window as snow levels crash. Expect a lighter start Sunday night, then snowfall rates ramp up hard Monday night into Tuesday with widespread coverage across Tahoe, the central Sierra, and down into Mammoth. Snow levels begin around 5,000 to 5,500 feet early, then fall into the 1,500 to 2,500-foot range by Tuesday and Tuesday night, which helps keep even lower terrain in play for all-snow. Snow ratios start out on the denser side around 9–12:1, then improve into the 15–19:1 range as colder air pours in, setting up a much drier feel for the heart of the storm. Winds are a real storyline, with sustained speeds pushing 30–40 mph at times and peak gusts commonly 60–85 mph along ridgelines, especially Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF, the AIFS, and the GFS line up well on the timing of this main surge, the GFS skews a bit more aggressive with wind and intensity, the ICON supports the early-week hit but does not carry as far into the period, and the GDPS runs hottest for totals in parts of the central Sierra.
A colder midweek follow-up Wed (02/18) through Thu night (02/19) adds another 4″–23″ in favored terrain, and snow quality trends solid. This is when the pattern shifts into a colder, more showery storm train that can keep soft turns coming even if the snowfall comes in waves. Snow levels stay much more supportive for all-snow, generally hovering in the 2,200 to 3,300-foot range across the Sierra, and temperatures stay in the teens to low 20s at mountain elevations for many areas. Ratios are generally better than the start of the cycle, often around 14–19:1, so the midweek refreshers should feel lighter and more surfy than the early part of the storm. Winds ease compared to the Monday night peak, though breezy southwest flow still shows up often enough to keep exposed ridges feeling wintry. The ECMWF keeps a clear midweek reinforcement in several Tahoe-area solutions, while the AIFS and the GDPS tend to maintain a more continuous, on-and-off snowfall signal into the back half of the week, which supports a steady accumulation story rather than a single quick shot.
From Fri (02/20) into Sat (02/21), the pattern keeps producing light to moderate pulses, generally another 1″–12″, and confidence drops on the timing of each refresher. Late-week snowfall is more dependent on how the shortwaves line up in the broader trough, so the exact up-and-down rhythm is harder to pin down this far out. The AIFS and the GDPS keep the storm cycle going longer with additional late-week snow, while the ECMWF and the GFS tend to relax totals sooner, which is a classic signal that the overall pattern is real while the late-week details are still in flux. Snow levels remain supportive for snow at the resorts, and ratios stay mostly in the moderate-to-fluffy range, so even smaller pulses can keep surfaces from getting stale. In Southern California, the storm favors higher snow levels near 6,500 feet early, dropping into the 4,100 to 4,700-foot range later in the week, with ratios improving from very dense early values into more workable mid-range ratios as colder air settles in, plus gusty winds stay in play. Longer-range signals keep California on the colder side with an active storm track into late February, so the odds remain tilted toward more opportunities beyond this window even though specifics are still wide open.
Resort Forecast Totals (Sun night (02/15) – Sat (02/21))
- Dodge Ridge – 46″–93″
- Kirkwood – 45″–90″
- Bear Valley – 42″–84″
- Mammoth – 38″–74″
- Sugar Bowl – 36″–71″
- Palisades Tahoe – 34″–67″
- Northstar – 23″–44″
- Heavenly – 18″–35″
- Diamond Peak – 17″–34″
- Mt Rose – 17″–33″
- Mount Baldy – 17″–32″
