Weather
A wet midweek Cascade cycle is the highest-confidence part of this forecast, followed by a lower-confidence but colder storm signal late in the period. Snow and rain increase Tuesday, peak Tuesday night through Thursday, and taper Friday morning, with the most reliable accumulations at higher elevations. Expect mostly dense snow quality during the core storm, then gradually better quality as colder air filters in. Resorts are operating, and the best turn quality this week should line up with higher-terrain windows from Wednesday into Thursday night.
Monday stays mostly dry and mild, then guidance converges on precipitation returning Tuesday and becoming widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday. Timing agreement is good, but guidance still diverges on exact intensity at each mountain. Snow levels while it is snowing are expected near 5,000 to 6,000 feet early Tuesday, then trend down to roughly 3,000 to 4,000 feet by late Wednesday into Thursday, which favors upper-mountain terrain first and brings better odds for pass-level accumulation later. During the main storm, snow-to-liquid ratios are mostly in the 7-10 range, so expect dense snow at first, with periodic 10-13 ratios in colder pockets late Wednesday night and Thursday. Exposed terrain should also see meaningful wind, with many ridgelines running 25-40 mph and occasional gusts in the 35-50 mph range around the frontal passage.
Wednesday through early Friday is the most actionable window for specific snowfall expectations. Regional guidance is converging on this period as the primary refresh, even though there is still spread on who overperforms. A reasonable in-window picture is strongest totals around Timberline and Mt Baker, moderate refreshes at Stevens Pass and Whistler, and lighter outcomes early at Snoqualmie Pass and Crystal Mountain until snow levels settle lower. Most areas should finish this window somewhere between 3″-17″, and the snow should stay on the heavier side overall before improving somewhat late in the storm.
Confidence drops from Friday afternoon through the weekend as model solutions diverge on the next wave timing, intensity, and snow-level swings. The broader pattern keeps offshore ridging nearby, so breaks between systems are still possible, especially farther south. Expect a relative lull first, with only spotty additional refreshes, generally around 0″-6″ where showers linger. From Sunday into next week, guidance converges on a return to active weather and stronger wind, but totals remain highly uncertain; a conservative broad signal for many Cascade areas is 8″-24″ in that later window, with upside to multi-foot outcomes if wetter solutions verify. Snow quality in that late period likely trends better overall, often around 10-14 or higher in colder phases, but expect intermittent denser bursts whenever snow levels jump.
Resort Forecast Totals (Tue Mar 03 – Fri Mar 06)
- Timberline – 11″-17″
- Mt Baker – 9″-14″
- Whistler – 6″-9″
- Stevens Pass – 6″-9″
- Mt Bachelor – 5″-8″
- Snoqualmie Pass – 3″-5″
- Crystal Mountain – 3″-4″
