SnowBrains Forecast: Over a Foot of Snow For New Zealand This Week

This forecast was created at 7 a.m. PST on Tuesday, September 2, 2025.

Summary

A warm, windy northwest start on Thursday night quickly turns colder by Friday night into Saturday, improving snow quality and lowering snow levels, with most New Zealand fields finishing in the 13-36 centimeter (5″–14″) range by late weekend. South Island winners lean Mackenzie and Canterbury-border zones with Ohau and Porters the standouts, while the Ruapehu fields time their better turns from Friday night through Saturday as snow levels fall and winds ease.

Forecast Discussion

Thursday night through Friday starts mild and blustery under northwest flow, so expect wet-density snow at elevation and mixed precip flirting with lower bases. Early snow levels range from roughly 1,500 to 1,900 meters (5,000–6,300 feet) in Canterbury and Ruapehu, and from around 1,300 to 1,500 meters (4,300–4,800 feet) near Queenstown–Wānaka. That puts lower terrain at Coronet Peak and Cardrona near the rain–snow line to begin, and the Ruapehu bases may see rain or very wet snow before the cooling arrives. Snow-to-liquid ratios sit mostly in the 3–8:1 range early, so accumulations are very dense and modest during the day on Friday.

Friday night through Saturday, a colder southwest push drops snow levels and flips the quality switch, with the best turns arriving as winds ease and temperatures fall to around -7ºC (the low 20s F) at upper elevations. Snow levels crash into the 500-800 meters (1,600–2,600 feet) band across the South Island on Saturday, and SLRs jump into the 11–15:1 range for a notably lighter feel. Regionally, South Island fields tally roughly 13-33 centimeters (5″–13″) by Saturday night, with Ohau leading totals and Porters close behind; Queenstown–Wānaka areas (Treble Cone, Cardrona, Remarkables, Coronet Peak) come in a notch lower but ski better as the colder air arrives.

On the North Island, the main hit favors Friday night through Saturday with improving quality as the freezing line drops. Turoa starts the event warm but trends far better overnight, Friday into Saturday, as snow levels fall toward about 1,300 meters (4,400 feet) by Saturday and even lower overnight, pushing SLRs toward the 10–12:1 ballpark. Whakapapa follows a similar arc from Friday night into Sunday, with generally lighter totals. Expect lingering light showers Sunday with gradually higher snow levels and only small additional accumulations.

Winds are a major operational factor early, then relax into Saturday. Expect very strong northwest gusts Thursday night into Friday, peaking in Canterbury and Ruapehu with gusts near 130-145 km/h (80–90 mph) at times, which can drive lift holds; speeds trend lighter into Saturday as flow turns southwest, opening the best chase window South Island on Saturday and Ruapehu from Saturday into early Sunday, terrain permitting.

Resort-by-Resort Snowfall Totals

• Ohau – 20–36 cm [8″–14″] Thu night (09/04) – Sat (09/06)
• Turoa – 18–36 cm [7″–14″] Thu night (09/04) – Sun night (09/07)
• Porters – 18–33 cm [7″–13″] Thu night (09/04) – Sat night (09/06)
• Treble Cone – 15–28 cm [6″–11″] Thu night (09/04) – Sat night (09/06)
• Whakapapa – 13–28 cm [5″–11″] Fri night (09/05) – Sun night (09/07)
• Cardrona – 15–25 cm [6″–10″] Thu night (09/04) – Sat night (09/06)
• Coronet Peak – 13–25 cm [5″–10″] Thu night (09/04) – Sun night (09/07)
• Mt Hutt – 13–25 cm [5″–10″] Thu night (09/04) – Sat night (09/06)
• Remarkables – 13–25 cm [5″–10″] Thu night (09/04) – Sat night (09/06)
• Mount Dobson – 10–20 cm [4″–8″] Thu night (09/04) – Sat night (09/06)