Weather
A Friday-through-weekend system refreshes the Pacific Northwest mountains, and then a colder, more unsettled pattern keeps the door open for a much bigger snow cycle into next week. Snow levels trend downward through the weekend, helping keep most resort terrain in snow and setting up improving quality as colder air settles in. After a brief lull, additional rounds of mountain snow look likely, while the timing, snow levels, and wind impacts become less certain with each passing day. The most reliable theme beyond the weekend is sustained storminess and below-normal temperatures, which supports frequent refreshers and periods of higher-quality snow across the Cascades and Coast Mountains.
Friday into early Sunday brings the clearest, highest-confidence snowfall of the forecast, with good agreement on the onset, lowering snow levels, and generally manageable winds. The models show modest spread in intensity, and they still converge on a solid refresh focused on higher terrain. Snow arrives from northwest to southeast, reaching Whistler and Mt Baker first and then spreading into the Cascades later Friday. Snow levels sit near 3,000 to 4,000 feet early and then fall toward 1,800 to 2,500 feet by Saturday afternoon, which improves conditions for lower base areas near Snoqualmie Pass. Storm totals at the resorts generally land in the 3″-12″ range, with the best odds for the higher end near Mt Baker, Timberline, and Mt Bachelor. Snow quality varies by elevation and latitude, with SLRs often around 7 to 10:1 in the central Washington Cascades and closer to 11 to 13:1 farther north.
From early next week into midweek, colder air and repeated Pacific waves keep snow falling in the mountains, and the models diverge on the timing, intensity, snow levels, and wind impacts of each surge. Even with that spread, most guidance supports snow levels staying low enough for frequent pass-level snow, and the colder air mass pushes SLRs up into the low teens and occasionally the mid teens, which means noticeably drier snow than the weekend for many areas. If the stronger solutions verify, multi-day totals can stack into the 12″-36+” ballpark for the favored Cascade corridors and the higher Oregon volcanoes, while the lower-end solutions still keep a steady refresh cadence. Expect at least a few periods of stronger ridge winds as the waves move through, with the most exposure on the volcano summits and upper-mountain lifts.
Late in the period, the background pattern stays cold and active across Washington and Oregon, but the models diverge enough that confidence drops to broad-brush guidance. Some guidance extends the active stretch with another stronger push of mountain snow late in the window, while other solutions shift the moisture focus or relax the storm intensity, and the spread also shows up in snow levels and wind exposure from resort to resort. Overall, signals favor below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation across the region, which keeps additional snow chances elevated and supports continued improvement in snow quality with time. If you are planning a chase late in the forecast, aim for flexibility and watch for sharper agreement on where the next moisture plume sets up across the Cascades and Coast Mountains.
Resort Forecast Totals (Fri 2/13 – Sun 2/15)
- Mt Baker – 10″-13″
- Timberline – 8″-12″
- Mt Bachelor – 5″-7″
- Stevens Pass – 4″-6″
- Whistler – 4″-5″
- Snoqualmie Pass – 3″-4″
- Crystal Mountain – 3″-4″
