Weather
A quick-hitting convective wave Saturday will freshen the central Sierra with 3″-7″ of new snow above 8,000 feet at Mammoth, after which high pressure locks in a dry, steadily warming pattern that persists well into next week. The brief burst will feature dense midday flakes transitioning to lighter powder Saturday night, while Sunday turns breezy and cooler before temperatures rebound to above-normal levels through the middle of May.
Friday stays warm and mostly dry, offering spring-corn conditions ahead of the weekend change. Highs push well into the upper 50s on exposed ridges, and snow levels sit far above 10,000 feet, so any afternoon showers or thunderstorms that fire east of the crest will fall as rain or graupel. Gusty outflow winds could briefly reach 45 mph near storm cells, but the overall impact on skiing remains minimal aside from isolated wet spots late in the day.
Saturday’s Convective Surge (May 3–4) delivers the only appreciable snow of the seven-day forecast window. A pronounced cooling trend drops summit temperatures near the freezing mark, with snow levels tumbling to roughly 8,000 feet by midday. Convective showers blossom across the range from noon through the evening, producing 3″-5″ on the highest ridges and a slushy 1″-2″ near the base. Initial flakes arrive heavy (SLR roughly 6:1) but lighten to a 10:1 consistency overnight, improving turn quality for first tracks on Sunday. Variable winds continue, with localized 45 mph gusts around thunder cells yet lighter speeds (15-25 mph) between bursts.
Sunday dawns cooler and breezy before rapid drying takes over. North winds hold in the 20-25 mph range through the afternoon, scouring any lingering convective moisture while highs hover near 50 degrees on the mid-mountain decks. The atmosphere then stabilizes, skies clear, and freezing levels rebound above 10,000 feet by Monday, promoting a return to classic firm-and-corn cycles.
Monday through Thursday features a strengthening ridge that keeps storms at bay and temps climbing. Expect sunny skies, light winds, and highs running 5-10 degrees above early-May averages by midweek, limiting overnight refreezes and pushing the ski day toward an early finish. Looking farther out, ensemble guidance for May 7-15 continues to favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the West, signaling low odds for additional powder opportunities until at least the second half of the month.
