Weather
The European Alps trend from a modest Thursday refresh into the main storm cycle over the weekend, and confidence is best from Thursday, March 12 through Sunday, March 15. Guidance is fairly well aligned on light to moderate snow Thursday, a quieter break Friday, then a broader Saturday into Sunday storm, while the biggest totals still look most likely in the higher western Alps and a few favored border-zone peaks. Snow levels generally stay around 1,100 to 1,700 meters on Thursday, then fall toward roughly 800 to 1,600 meters over the weekend, so upper-mountain snow quality should improve as the colder air settles in.
Thursday brings the steadiest short-range signal, and guidance is converging on a modest refresh rather than a major storm. Most areas should see light accumulations, with the better end of the totals in the higher western Alpine terrain where a general 5-15 cm looks reasonable, while eastern sectors are more likely to land closer to just a few centimeters. Snow levels during this first wave mostly run near 1,100 to 1,700 meters, so the higher resorts stay all snow, and snow quality should fall in the moderate to fairly light range with SLRs commonly around 10 to 14, though the southern edge can come in denser. Friday then looks like the clean break in the pattern with little new snow, manageable winds, and a decent reset day before the weekend system arrives.
The weekend storm is the main event, with guidance converging on Saturday into Sunday timing but still diverging quite a bit on how hard the higher western Alps cash in. One notably drier solution remains in the mix, but most guidance brings a widespread storm with the strongest snow focused on the higher western Alps and a few favored border-zone peaks. A realistic forecast is for many of those higher resorts to pick up 30-80 cm by late Sunday, while farther east and lower-favored terrain is more likely in the 5-20 cm range. Snow levels generally start around 900 to 1,600 meters and trend lower as the storm matures, and SLRs mostly run from 10 to 16, so expect snow quality to improve from fairly dense early to better mid-storm powder higher up. Winds do not look like the dominant issue at this point, but exposed upper lifts can still turn breezy during the heavier bursts.
Monday into Tuesday keeps a colder follow-up signal on the table, but this is where guidance diverges much more aggressively and confidence drops off. The wetter camp would spread another 5-15 cm fairly broadly and locally 15-30 cm in favored terrain, while the driest camp tries to shut the pattern down much faster. Snow levels would stay low enough for snow at most resorts, generally around 700 to 1,200 meters where precipitation develops, and any new snow should be moderate to locally light with SLRs often in the 11 to 17 range. Beyond Tuesday, the overall look trends drier, with only a low-confidence chance that a late-week disturbance returns to the western Alps.
Resort Forecast Totals (Thu Mar 12 – Sun Mar 15)
- Cervinia – 61-105 cm
- Zermatt – 55-95 cm
- Wengen (Jungfrau) – 41-67 cm
- Verbier – 38-63 cm
- Val d’Isère – 37-63 cm
- Val Thorens – 33-55 cm
- Tignes – 31-53 cm
- Courchevel – 28-46 cm
- Chamonix – 28-46 cm
- St. Moritz – 17-28 cm
- Cortina d’Ampezzo – 9-15 cm
- Samnaun – 7-11 cm
- Sölden – 6-10 cm
- Ischgl – 5-8 cm
- St. Anton – 4-6 cm
- Kitzbühel – 0-1 cm
