Weather
A windy, springlike stretch dominates through midweek, then the Northeast picks up two modest rounds of snow from Thursday into Saturday. The first half of the period is more about soft snow, limited overnight refreeze, and occasional lift-impacting wind than new accumulation, especially this weekend. Confidence is highest from Thursday afternoon, March 12, through Saturday afternoon, March 14, when several mountains should pick up a useful refresh, generally topping out around 4″-8″ at the snowiest resorts. After that, another colder storm signal shows up from Sunday night into Tuesday, March 17, but the spread is still wide enough that it should be treated as a lower-confidence upside play rather than a locked-in powder cycle.
Saturday, March 7, is the roughest ski day short term, with warm air, showers, and powerful south to southwest wind keeping conditions springlike across the region. Exposed northern Vermont peaks are the most wind-affected today, with gusts pushing 60 to 100 mph in the forecast data, so upper-mountain holds are the most plausible operational issue there. After that, the guidance converges well on a quieter Sunday, March 8, through Tuesday, March 10, period: plenty of dry hours, mountain temperatures often in the 30s and 40s, and little if any natural snow. Surfaces should soften quickly each afternoon, especially at lower elevations, while overnight recovery looks only partial until colder air starts filtering back in later Wednesday. The best turns through midweek come from grooming and timing the corn cycle, not from fresh snow.
Late Wednesday, March 11, into Thursday, March 12, the next system brings the first real refresh, but the guidance still has only moderate agreement on intensity and on how wet the snow gets at the lower mountains. The various solutions do line up on timing well enough to expect a region-wide period of precipitation, and they broadly agree that northern Vermont does best in the first round. They diverge more on snowfall rates and snow levels, which generally bounce between valley floors and about 3,500 feet, so base areas can mix briefly while the upper mountains stay mostly snow. Where it is snowing, ratios mostly land near 7-15, pointing to dense to moderate snow rather than blower powder. A reasonable regional expectation for Thursday is a widespread 1″-4″, with the higher end most favored at Jay Peak, Stowe, and nearby upper-elevation terrain.
Confidence is highest from Thursday afternoon, March 12, through Saturday afternoon, March 14, because the guidance clusters around a second, colder round Friday night into Saturday before spread opens sharply again after that. This second wave looks better aligned on snow levels, generally near 100 to 1,500 feet, so accumulations should be more mountain-wide even though totals still stay modest; most resorts look set for another 2″-4″, with the White Mountains and western Maine favored Saturday. Winds remain part of the story, with many exposed ridges gusting 40 to 60 mph and a few higher northern peaks stronger than that. Beyond Saturday, the extended signal is much less settled: ECMWF is much snowier Sunday night through Tuesday, March 17, while AIFS is far weaker and the other guidance falls in between. The conservative middle ground is another 4″-10″ of potential at many resorts, locally a bit more north, but that part of the forecast is still too uncertain for a firm call.
Resort Forecast Totals (Thu Mar 12 – Sat Mar 14)
- Jay Peak – 4″-8″
- Stowe – 4″-8″
- Wildcat – 3″-7″
- Cannon Mountain – 3″-6″
- Bretton Woods – 3″-6″
- Loon Mountain – 3″-6″
- Sugarbush – 3″-6″
- Sugarloaf – 3″-5″
- Killington – 3″-5″
- Sunday River – 2″-4″
