SnowBrains Forecast: Record Warmth and a Mostly Dry Stretch for Utah Through Sunday

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ECMWF snowfall forecast map
Credit: WeatherBell

Utah skiing heads into a strongly springlike stretch, with only a few leftover Monday morning flakes before a long run of dry, unusually warm weather takes over. The main story is rapid warming through the middle and latter part of the week, with the upper Cottonwoods rising into the 50s and Park City side resorts touching 60 on the warmest afternoons. Expect a daily freeze-thaw rhythm, firmer starts, soft corn and slush by late morning and afternoon, and only a low-end chance of minor showers sometime next week.

Models are tightly converged from Monday through Sunday, March 16-22, on a quick shutoff of lingering post-frontal moisture followed by dominant ridge-driven warmth and mostly dry skies. Any leftover Monday morning flakes are limited to a trace on the highest northern slopes, and they look dense rather than dry, with snow ratios roughly in the 8-12 range where snow is still falling. Exposed terrain starts the week breezy, with ridge gusts commonly in the 35-45 mph range around Alta, Brighton, Snowbird, and nearby peaks, but wind eases through midweek and stays manageable for most lifts. Temperatures climb fast after Monday, with Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, and Solitude reaching the 50s by Wednesday through Saturday, while Park City and Deer Valley push to about 60. That points to firm early surfaces, fast softening once the sun gets to work, and a steadily wetter lower-mountain feel each afternoon.

Confidence is lower after Sunday night because the guidance begins to diverge on whether the ridge simply weakens or allows a weak glancing disturbance into Utah around Tuesday and Wednesday. Several solutions keep the state dry, while the more aggressive ones only produce spotty light precipitation, mainly in the northern mountains, with little if any meaningful new snow at open resorts. If that wave does materialize, it looks like a warm, dense setup rather than a powder event. Snow levels would likely start around 8,000 to 9,000 feet before lowering, snow quality would stay below classic blower standards with snow ratios mostly below 10, and exposed ridges could turn breezier again. The broader pattern still favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation over Utah, so the most realistic expectation is continued spring skiing with a minor cool-down next week, not a true return to winter.


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