Weather
This forecast is brought to you by Stowe Mountain Resort.
Stowe, Vermont, stays in a light-to-moderate snow cycle through Thursday, goes quiet for a couple days, then turns milder with a more active and less certain mid-to-late week stretch. The best, driest refresh comes from today into tonight, followed by a small Friday night into Saturday system and a modest Monday night into Tuesday wave that brings slightly denser snow. The late-window storm potential increases from Wednesday into Friday, when snow levels rise and snow quality becomes more variable depending on timing and elevation.
Wednesday–Thursday Snow Showers (02/11–02/12) bring the most reliable near-term refresh, focused on the upper mountain. Expect storm totals around 3″–4″ with snow levels near 0 feet, temperatures mainly in the low to mid teens °F, and SLRs generally 16–18:1, which supports fairly good, chalky powder. Winds run westerly to northwesterly 15–20 mph with gusts 35–40 mph, so exposed terrain near the summit can feel sharp while mid-mountain skiing stays more comfortable. The ECMWF and the AIFS cluster close to this outcome, while the GFS, the ICON, and especially the GDPS run snowier with a more persistent upslope signal.
Friday Night–Saturday Minor System (02/13–02/14) adds a smaller refresh, then another modest wave follows Monday night into Tuesday (02/16–02/17). Friday night into Saturday looks like a quick hit in the 1″ neighborhood, still cold enough for snow with SLRs near 16:1 and lighter winds around 10–15 mph with gusts into the 20s. The ECMWF and the AIFS are a bit more persistent than the main forecast during this window, while the GFS is more of a one-period pulse on Saturday. Monday night into Tuesday brings another light 1″ with rising temperatures into the mid 20s °F, SLRs closer to 12–13:1, and snow levels around 200 feet, so snow quality trends denser. The AIFS is lighter here, while the GDPS is notably higher, and the ICON’s signal shifts the timing earlier (Sunday night into Monday), which is a reminder that small timing differences can matter as the pattern warms.
Wednesday–Friday System (02/18–02/20) is the biggest late-window opportunity, but it comes with the widest spread in totals and snow quality. The main forecast shows 3″–7″ spread across multiple periods, with snow levels rising from roughly 900 feet to about 1,800 feet and temperatures ranging from around 20 °F to the upper 20s °F. SLRs vary widely, roughly 11–15:1, so expect a mix of denser snow at times with better quality when colder air pushes in late. Winds look manageable overall, generally 15–20 mph with gusts 25–35 mph, and directions that turn from southerly early to northwesterly later. The AIFS supports a meaningful Wednesday night through Thursday night event, the GFS is more aggressive but concentrates it earlier (Wednesday into Wednesday night), and the GDPS shifts the better signal later (Thursday night into Friday). The ECMWF does not show a comparable storm signal in this part of the window, so keep expectations flexible for how much of this ends up as a true powder cycle versus a warmer, mixed-quality event at the lower mountain (base elevation 1,280 feet, summit elevation 4,395 feet).
Stowe Forecast Total (02/11–02/20)
- Stowe – 7″–13″
