Weather
Thursday stays stormy across the Sierra with cold snow and strong ridge winds, then a quieter Friday and Saturday set up before storm chances return late in the weekend and next week. Confidence is highest through Saturday because the individual models agree well on the timing of the Thursday storm and the following break. Southern California’s mountains pick up a quick shot of snow on Thursday with strong winds, then dry out into the weekend. Beyond the weekend, the signal stays active, but model spread grows fast on storm timing, snow levels, and wind impacts, so expect meaningful swings from run to run.
Wednesday night through Thursday evening brings a cold, windy reload with 5″-29″ of new snow across California’s ski areas. Snow ramps up again overnight, with the most intense stretch Thursday morning into early afternoon for the central Sierra and Tahoe resorts, then tapering Thursday night. All models line up well on the overall timing and the cold airmass, while amounts still vary by favored terrain and exact storm track. Snow levels stay very low for the Sierra, generally around 1,500 to 2,500 feet and occasionally lower, so this stays all snow at resort elevations. Snow quality looks strong in the Sierra with SLRs commonly 14-18:1 around Tahoe and pushing 16-20:1 near Mammoth for lighter, drier powder. Southern California’s mountains run denser with SLRs closer to 7-10:1, and wind becomes a major player with ridgetop gusts in the 45-60 mph range during the heart of the storm. Bear Valley and Mount Baldy are currently temporarily closed, so keep plans centered on the open Tahoe, Mammoth, and Sierra resorts for immediate turns.
Friday and Saturday turn mostly dry with lighter winds, so snow quality should stay solid and grooming should catch up quickly. A few leftover snow showers can linger early Friday along the crest, then coverage fades quickly into a calmer stretch. Colder nights help preserve soft snow, especially on shaded aspects and higher terrain, and daytime temperatures stay supportive for holding powder where it avoids direct sun. The individual models show strong convergence on this lull in precipitation, the lighter winds, and the lack of meaningful new snowfall through Saturday, so confidence is high in the reset window. Southern California also dries out and calms down after Thursday’s windy storm, which should improve the on-mountain experience where lifts are running.
From late Sunday through the end of February, several model solutions bring an additional 24″-60″ to the higher Sierra, while others trend much lighter. Confidence drops quickly once the weekend break ends because the models diverge on wave timing, how long each round lasts, and where the storm track focuses the best moisture. That spread shows up in snow levels as well, with a warmer signal in some runs that would push denser snow down to mid-mountain, while colder solutions keep more of the new snow lighter at the resorts. Wind impacts also become harder to pin down beyond the weekend, and small track shifts will matter for which ridgelines take the brunt of the gusts. The broader late-February pattern still supports elevated storm chances for northern and central California during the February 24-28 window, while southern California’s odds trend lower later in the period. Plan for an active look with shifting details, and expect sharper clarity as the early-week system comes into focus.
Resort Forecast Totals Wed Feb 18 – Sat Feb 21
- Dodge Ridge – 22″-29″
- Sugar Bowl – 21″-27″
- Bear Valley – 21″-27″
- Palisades Tahoe – 19″-25″
- Kirkwood – 19″-24″
- Mammoth – 13″-16″
- Mt Rose – 11″-15″
- Northstar – 11″-14″
- Diamond Peak – 10″-13″
- Heavenly – 6″-8″
- Mount Baldy – 5″-7″
