South America Snow Forecast: Up to 1 Meter by Friday

Snowfall forecast map — Credit: NOAA/NCEP GFS

The South America snow forecast keeps an ongoing storm cycle active through Friday, with the largest near-term totals focused on Nevados de Chillán and the high central Chilean Andes. Confidence is strongest from Tuesday afternoon through Friday afternoon as the guidance agrees on the main pulses and a short midweek lull, though exact intensity differs by mountain. High central terrain should receive moderate to light snow, while the southern Andes sees denser accumulation and stronger wind. Portillo remains fully closed under its latest operations update, and storm loading may limit lift access elsewhere even where snowfall is favorable.

The storm is already underway across central Chile, Mendoza, Corralco, and Nevados de Chillán. From Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, the individual models converge on snow easing across the high central Andes by Wednesday morning while Corralco and Chillán continue to pulse, and they broadly agree that the heaviest intensity stays focused on those southern Chilean mountains. They also converge on snow levels generally holding between 900 and 2,000 meters during active hours, safely below the high central resort bases but near lower slopes farther south and in Patagonia. SLRs of 12-16 favor moderate to light snow in the high central Andes, while 7-10 means denser snow southward. Wind placement converges on Chillán and Corralco, but peak speeds diverge, with common gusts of 60-90 km/h and isolated guidance above 100 km/h.

A more organized reload crosses the northern and central Andes from Wednesday night through Thursday while the southern storm continues in waves, bringing totals of 70-95 cm to Nevados de Chillán, 54-76 cm to Portillo, and 46-64 cm to Valle Nevado by Friday afternoon. The individual models converge on this timing and keep snow levels below the high-elevation resort bases, but they diverge substantially on intensity and peak wind. Snow levels rise toward 1,800-2,600 meters in the central Andes and 1,300-1,800 meters farther south, allowing mixed precipitation on some lower runs while upper terrain stays snowy. Fresh loading and wind could interrupt exposed lifts at resorts with active lift service.

From late Friday through Friday, July 31, a conservative additional snowfall ballpark is 50-100 cm for favored central Chile, Las Leñas, and Chillán terrain, 40-80 cm around Corralco, 20-50 cm around Catedral and Chapelco, and generally under 10 cm at Cerro Castor. The individual models diverge sharply on the timing and intensity of each wave, on whether snow levels briefly exceed 2,500 meters in central Chile, and on which windy periods are strong enough to affect lifts. Meaningful dry breaks are likely between waves, but their timing is not settled enough for day-specific powder calls. Snow should trend denser during the warmer pulses, then improve as snow levels fall within the stronger waves.