Australia Snow Forecast: Up to 15 cm by Thursday

Snowfall forecast map — Credit: NOAA/NCEP GFS

This Australia snow forecast favors a modest, wind-affected refresh from Tuesday into Thursday. The best lift-served improvement should come Wednesday as snow levels fall and the snow turns less dense, but this is not a deep storm: published totals range from 4-6 cm at Selwyn Snowfields to 11-16 cm at Mount Baw Baw through Saturday. Confidence is highest from Monday evening through Saturday, while a second round from Sunday into midweek remains less organized and less certain.

Monday stays mostly quiet before a few flakes reach Mount Buller late, Tasmania follows Tuesday morning, Victoria fills in during Tuesday, and the New South Wales resorts follow Tuesday night into Wednesday. The individual models are converging on that timing and on snow levels starting near 1,500-1,700 meters before falling below 1,000 meters Wednesday, but they diverge sharply on intensity. They also converge on a windy Tuesday, generally supporting sustained ridge winds around 45-70 km/h, though projected wind impacts diverge from manageable exposure to lift disruptions. Early SLRs near 5-8:1 point to dense, wind-pressed snow before the colder air improves it.

Wednesday carries the most useful snowfall, followed by a broad taper Thursday and only stray light showers around Mount Baw Baw and Mount Mawson into Friday. Snow levels should sit below resort bases for the main Wednesday pulse, with SLRs improving to roughly 8-12:1 for moderate, less heavy snow. The models converge on Wednesday as the peak and on easing winds Thursday, though they still diverge on amounts and on how long the southern tail lasts. Confidence is highest from Monday evening through Saturday. Mount Mawson remains on hold for insufficient cover, Mount Buller reports limited cover, and Mount Baw Baw and Selwyn Snowfields have limited lift-served terrain, so a modest refresh may improve surfaces without producing broad openings.

From Sunday through Wednesday, another weak and uneven snow signal develops, but the models diverge on its timing, intensity, snow levels, and wind impacts. Some bring showers back Sunday, while most delay the better chance until Monday and then disagree on whether it fades Tuesday or pulses into Wednesday. Snow levels are generally projected below the higher resort terrain during precipitation, but the lower elevations and precise timing remain uncertain. A conservative expectation is another 2-8 cm on favored slopes, with Mount Baw Baw and parts of Tasmania carrying the better upside. Winds range from breezy to potentially disruptive, so this does not yet support a precise powder-day call.