South America Snow Forecast: Up to 170 cm by Monday

Snowfall forecast map — Credit: NOAA/NCEP GFS

The South America snow forecast keeps a major multi-wave storm in play through Monday, with up to 170 cm at the northern Patagonia bullseye and broad refreshes in the central Andes. Snow quality will vary sharply by elevation as warm pulses raise snow levels, while powerful ridge winds may interrupt upper-mountain lift service. Portillo is currently closed, while every other resort is operating at least partially. Confidence is strongest from Thursday afternoon through Monday night.

At Cerro Catedral and Chapelco, the storm that began early Thursday is already underway, while Corralco and Nevados de Chillán load up on 79-112 cm and 120-170 cm, respectively, through Monday night. The models converge on the Thursday-night through Monday timing and a windy, upper-mountain-favored event, but diverge on pulse intensity, exact snow-level swings, and whether gusts peak near 60 or above 100 km/h. Snow levels fluctuate between 600 and 2,000 meters, with the warmest spikes reaching or rising above some resort bases, and ratios near 4-12:1 favor dense, wind-affected snow before colder periods improve it. Cerro Castor stays on the edge of the storm with brief light snow and quieter skiing between flakes.

The central Andes get two distinct rounds, with 52-109 cm around the Santiago resorts and 77-120 cm at Las Leñas and Portillo by Monday night. The first round arrives Friday with ratios mainly near 11-17:1 and snow levels around 1,100-2,600 meters, producing the lighter snow of the cycle. A broader weekend round turns denser as snow levels rise toward 1,700-3,000 meters, allowing periods of mixed or wetter snow on lower slopes while upper terrain remains favored. The models converge on both starts and stronger weekend wind, but diverge on second-round intensity, peak snow levels, and whether exposed gusts stay near 40 or approach 80 km/h. Portillo has no lift-served access while its closure continues.

From Tuesday through next weekend, another 30-80 cm could favor northern Patagonia, a less organized 10-50 cm is possible across the central Andes and central Patagonia, and Cerro Castor may see 5-15 cm. This part of the outlook is speculative. The models diverge by roughly one to two days on wave timing, range from weak to substantial on intensity, and offer no stable consensus on snow levels or wind impacts. The most realistic expectation is another unsettled period rather than one clean storm, with Nevados de Chillán and Corralco holding the best chance for a meaningful reload.