Weather
A windy Thursday night through Friday cold front brings Australia’s only meaningful snow in this forecast, with the best shot at 15 cm-20 cm on the highest Snowy Mountains terrain and solid but denser falls farther west. Snow levels drop fast overnight, but this is still a wet system with SLRs mostly in the 4 to 8 range, so early accumulations will be sticky and elevation-dependent rather than light powder. Confidence is highest from Thursday night through Friday night. Most resorts in this forecast remain closed, so this looks more useful for early cover than immediate lift-served skiing.
Forecast guidance is clustered well on the timing of the front, with precipitation arriving Thursday evening, peaking overnight into Friday morning, and tapering Friday night. The better agreement is on falling snow levels and strong wind, while snowfall intensity still has moderate spread, especially across Victoria. Snow levels generally start around 1,700 to 1,900 meters Thursday evening and fall to roughly 1,200 to 1,500 meters by Friday morning, which should flip the higher terrain to snow but leaves the lower hills marginal early on. SLRs mostly sit between 4 and 8, with only brief 8 to 10 pockets late on the highest NSW peaks, so expect dense storm snow. The exposed ridges also look rough Friday, with many solutions supporting gusts around 80 to 120 km/h and locally stronger bursts.
By Saturday, the models converge again on a quick drying trend with only a stray leftover flurry early, followed by a mostly dry weekend into Tuesday. Winds ease back noticeably after Friday, and temperatures rebound fast, with many higher-elevation afternoon readings climbing into the 10 to 13 °C range by Sunday and Monday. Any fresh cover will settle quickly under that warmer pattern. The strongest snow signal still favors the higher NSW terrain around 15 cm-20 cm, while Falls Creek and Mount Hotham look closer to 10 cm-15 cm and Mount Buller stays lighter.
From Tuesday night onward, guidance diverges enough that the most realistic call is a mainly dry mainland outlook with only a weak southern-ocean snow chance late in the period. Timing, precipitation coverage, snow levels, and wind all spread out more after Friday night, so confidence drops sharply outside that stretch. The broad signal is for mild conditions to continue across the mainland resorts, while Tasmania has the best chance to squeeze out a small late-window refresh, likely only a 1 cm-3 cm type outcome if the colder version verifies.
Resort Forecast Totals (Thu Mar 26 – Fri Mar 27)
- Charlotte Pass – 15 cm-21 cm
- Perisher – 15 cm-21 cm
- Mount Baw Baw – 13 cm-17 cm
- Mount Hotham – 12 cm-17 cm
- Falls Creek – 11 cm-16 cm
- Thredbo – 7 cm-10 cm
- Mount Buller – 4 cm-5 cm
- Selwyn Snowfields – 2 cm
- Mount Mawson – 1 cm
- Ben Lomond – 0 cm
