Weather
South America gets a modest but useful round of snow from Saturday, April 18 through Monday night, April 20, with the cleanest weekend hit in Patagonia and a warmer, higher-elevation refresh reaching the central Andes late Sunday into Monday. Confidence is highest from Saturday, April 18 through Monday night, April 20, when the guidance is most aligned on timing and snow levels. After that, most areas quiet down for a few days before a more meaningful late-week storm signal returns with much lower confidence.
Saturday starts with the best near-term skiing weather signal in Patagonia and southern Chile. The models are fairly well clustered on Saturday timing and on snow levels falling into roughly 800 to 1,700 meters, which should favor snow across much of the ski terrain at Cerro Catedral and the upper mountain at Chapelco and Corralco. Amounts still vary by solution, but Cerro Catedral is the best bet to push toward 15 cm, while Chapelco and Corralco look more modest. Snow quality should be on the dense side, with SLRs mostly below 10, and ridge gusts can still spike into the 70 to 110 km/h range even though the exact wind peak remains one of the bigger forecast spreads.
Late Sunday into Monday, the focus shifts north toward Las Leñas and the central Chile Andes. The models agree that a wave reaches Portillo, Valle Nevado, La Parva, El Colorado, and Las Leñas, but they separate more on coverage and snowfall than they do in Patagonia. Snow levels look high in Chile, generally around 2,600 to 3,000 meters while it is snowing, so the better accumulation should stay on upper mountain terrain and the snow will be dense with SLRs mostly below 10. Wind guidance is less aggressive here than it is farther south, with only modest to moderate exposed gusts in most solutions, while Las Leñas looks a little colder and should finish with better quality as ratios briefly climb into the low teens late Monday. Several central Chile areas that report status remain closed, so this round is more useful for preseason base building than immediate lift-served value there.
Tuesday through Thursday should be the quietest stretch for most of the region. The guidance generally converges on that lull, aside from occasional wind and light snow far south near Cerro Castor, then diverges sharply again from Wednesday, April 29 into Friday, May 1. ECMWF is notably wetter in central Chile, while GFS is wetter across parts of Patagonia and the Argentine Andes, so confidence drops quickly on timing, intensity, snow levels, and wind. A conservative read still leaves room for another storm capable of around 20 cm at favored upper elevations late next week, but that is still a signal to watch rather than a forecast to lock in today.
Snow Forecast Resort Totals (Sat Apr 18 – Tue Apr 21)
- Cerro Catedral – 12-16 cm
- Valle Nevado – 10-16 cm
- Las Leñas – 7-11 cm
- Chapelco – 7-10 cm
- El Colorado – 4-7 cm
- Corralco – 4-6 cm
- La Parva – 4-6 cm
- Portillo – 3-5 cm
- Cerro Castor – 1 cm
- Nevados de Chillán – 1 cm
