Weather
A two-part storm cycle should bring 10″-30″ to open PNW resorts through Friday evening, with the most reliable snow focused in that window. Confidence is strongest on a wet Monday into Tuesday followed by another round Wednesday into Thursday, then drops off for the weekend and early next week as solutions separate more on coverage and intensity.
Monday through Tuesday mornings atmospheric-river wave is converging well on timing and broad snow-level behavior, with a regional snowfall signal around 4″-21″ depending on elevation and latitude. The steadiest snow is favored Monday morning through Monday evening, then trends lighter Tuesday, while intensity still shows moderate spread between wetter and leaner outcomes. Snow levels generally run near 2,500 to 4,000 feet in Washington before lowering later, but are often higher in Oregon around 4,500 to 6,500 feet, so Oregon snow quality runs denser overall. Snow-to-liquid ratios are mostly near 8 to 13:1 in Washington for fair quality, versus roughly 4 to 10:1 on Oregon volcano terrain for heavier snow. Wind guidance is converging on impactful ridge-top wind, especially in Oregon, but still diverging on exact peak gust magnitudes.
The Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night wave has good agreement on arrival timing but clear divergence on intensity, snow levels, and peak wind impacts, with additional snow most likely in a broad 3″-11″ band by early Friday. Washington and Whistler are favored for better cold pockets with many periods near 1,000 to 3,500 feet snow levels, while Oregon elevations again fluctuate higher and support denser snow at times. Snow quality should be mixed in this second push: many Washington and Whistler periods run about 8 to 14:1, while Oregon often runs closer to 4 to 12:1 before occasional improvement later in the cycle. Most guidance supports another breezy-to-windy period Wednesday night into Thursday, but confidence in exact wind severity remains moderate rather than high.
Beyond Friday evening confidence drops quickly, and the next window looks broader and more speculative, from near-dry outcomes to around 0″-6″ at many areas with locally higher upside near the Washington border if wetter solutions win out. The weekend signal leans lighter overall with intermittent mountain showers, while temperatures trend near to above normal across much of Washington and Oregon, supporting periodic rises in snow levels and variable surface quality. The larger-scale outlook continues to favor warmth relative to normal in both states, with a drier lean first and then a somewhat wetter north-biased signal later, which keeps northern resorts first in line for any meaningful refresh.
Resort Forecast Totals (Mon Feb 23 – Fri Feb 27)
- Timberline – 22″-29″
- Mt Baker – 18″-27″
- Stevens Pass – 15″-22″
- Mt Bachelor – 15″-20″
- Snoqualmie Pass – 12″-17″
- Crystal Mountain – 12″-17″
- Whistler – 10″-15″
