Weather
This forecast is brought to you by SkiBig3.
A multi-wave storm cycle should keep the SkiBig3 active through Saturday, with Lake Louise and Banff Sunshine favored for the best accumulation while Mount Norquay stays more marginal early. Confidence is highest from Wednesday morning through Saturday evening, when guidance is aligned on several rounds of snow, a drop in snow levels from around 1,700 to 2,300 meters to well below base elevations by Saturday, and only moderate wind issues rather than a major shutdown signal. After that, Sunday and Monday look colder and quieter before another lower-confidence shot of snow shows up around Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Wednesday brings the first refresh, and the models are reasonably converged on timing with light snow arriving during the morning before easing later in the day. Intensity is modest and the spread is widest at Mount Norquay, where some guidance barely produces accumulations while the better-favored solutions keep Lake Louise and Banff Sunshine collecting steady light snow. Snow levels during that period mostly sit between 1,700 and 2,200 meters, so early snow will be dense with SLRs largely in the 5 to 10 range and the lower mountain will be mixed or marginal at times, especially at Norquay. Wind guidance is also fairly tight, pointing to exposed gusts mostly in the 30 to 50 km/h range, enough for a noticeable ridge-top bite but not a strong signal for major operational trouble.
The main storm window runs from Thursday night through Saturday, and guidance is still converged on that timing even though snowfall intensity differs from one solution cluster to another. Lake Louise and Banff Sunshine are favored throughout, while Mount Norquay remains the least certain and least productive until colder air settles in. Snow levels bounce around 1,800 to 2,300 meters during the milder part of Friday, then fall below base elevations Friday night into Saturday, so snow quality should improve from dense 5 to 10 SLR snow at first to much nicer 13 to 18 SLR snow in the colder wraparound phase. Wind guidance is similarly steady, generally around 20 to 40 km/h with occasional higher exposed gusts, so the bigger story is the improving quality by Saturday rather than a major wind event.
Sunday and Monday look colder and quieter, then another round of snow becomes possible Tuesday night into Wednesday next week, with a conservative outcome near 5 cm-15 cm and upside beyond that if the stronger solutions verify. The models converge on that later timing window and on colder air being in place, which would keep snow levels at or below most base elevations, but they diverge sharply on intensity and wind impacts. That spread is especially large at Banff Sunshine and Mount Norquay, so it is better treated as a possible refresh than a locked-in second storm cycle. For skiers, the best turns in this forecast still look tied to the Friday into Saturday period, with Sunday and Monday offering the cleaner visibility and better recovery conditions between systems.
Resort Forecast Totals (Wed Mar 18 – Sat Mar 21)
- Lake Louise – 42 cm-64 cm
- Banff Sunshine – 33 cm-51 cm
- Mount Norquay – 5 cm-8 cm
